Tuesday, November 4, 2008

The Election night jitters

5:07pm PST
I can't help it. I'm excited and nervous at the same time, and nothing will settle my stomach until we see the results from Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia and North Dakota.
The big guns at FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics are slowly coming in. They seem to be very careful about results.
5:10 pm
I just checked the map at MSNBC - they update every 2 minutes. They are calling PA, IL, NH, VT, MA, CT, NJ, DE, MD and DC for Obama.. KY, TN, SC, and OK for McCain - 103 to 34 Obama. Amazing since there are no vote tallies on their site. Especially interesting is PA.

5:16 pm
MSNBC shows an 8 pt lead in FL for Obama, with 24% reporting, but isn't calling. Not suprised.
They show a McCain ahead in VA by 13 so who knows. I think a lot of this is exit and Absentee data. The VA number is out of sync with the pre-election polls, so I'm thinking you can't trust any of this much... arrgh!!

5:32pm
Flipped back into fivethirtyeight.com and they have Hagen beating Dole in North Carolina - that's good news for Obama too. AP has called NH for Obama. MSNBC has ME for Obama now, and I'm looking at the state data for VA. It seems they've had a lot of problems polling in the south-east today. There's also a report on CNN about voter suppression activities in the same area that are being investigated. In any case, this is going to be a long night for results for VA.

5:38
McCain is planning his post-election for the Biltmore Hotel in Phoenix. Most guests in the ballroom, but he won't speak from there - he's got a stage set up outside in a rather small area. It looks like a 'designed for media' type event. Small space - specially picked crowd to fill it, while the rest watch on TV. Obama, on the other hand has got Grant Park in Chicago. Space for 70,000 in the secure area - and probably 1,000,000+ total expected to attend. Some rally.. the coast guard is protecting the lake side, and the Secret Service has swept the secure area. They have snipers on the rooftops and the whole bit. That's going to be a heck of a party.

6:48
Well, MSNBC was wrong about Virginia. It's now all tied up - 7,000 votes out of 3.8 Million.
Some of these early projections seem to be just shadows. Georgia is being flagged for McCain based on rural voting results - but the big suburban counties aren't reporting. I think it's going to look like another Virginia.

6:55
What ever happened to not reporting the results until ALL the polls are closed? Western states are still voting !! This year Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado are all in play.
Well, maybe Colorado was decided yesterday.. they had early voting there that was a very large part of the total vote count.

Anyway - I'll be back to continue this blog later - after the dust has settled a bit.
My nerves can't stand it anymore!

No comments: