Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Cheney and Gonzalas Indicted in Texas

Not waiting for the dust to settle on the election, a District Attorney in Willacy County, Texas has indicted Dick Cheney and Alberto Gonzalas on seperate charges related to alleged prisoner abuse in federal detention centers. CNN reports:
The indictment stems from Cheney's investment in the Vanguard Group -- an investment management company that reportedly has interests in the prison companies in charge of the detention centers, according to The Associated Press. It also charges Gonzales halted an investigation into abuse at the detention centers while he was attorney general.
That seems to me to be a conflict of interest on Cheney's part to begin with. Cheney's spokesperson indicated that he had not recieved an indictment.

Let's see what he tries to use to avoid this circus.

The Obama Transition

It's been two weeks to the day, and Obama has been busy. Settled is his Chief of Staff, Rahm Emmanuel, and word has it that his Attorney General will be Eric Holder, the first African-American in that post. Holder was assistant AG under Clinton. Obama had also had discussions with Hillary Clinton, and Bill Richardson. Are the rumors about Hillary being nominated for Secretary of State a result of 'leaks' from the transition team to test the waters? He's even had time to sit down with John McCain, a meeting that must have been a bit awkward for them both.

The buzz on the inaugaration are that the demand for tickets is thousands of times higher than the available seats. Even if you are lucky enough to get a ticket (and who knows how our senators and representatives are going to handle the process), the chances of being able to get a flight, a hotel, and a place to sit (or even stand) are pretty small.

Ted Stevens Career Withering

As the last major block of votes are counted in Alaska today, Mark Begich's lead more than doubled to almost 3,000 votes. That puts him past the margin requiring an automatic recount. It remains to be seen if the Republican party requests one.

Meanwhile, the Alaska Supreme Court delayed issuing an interim suspension of Mr. Stevens law license, giving him a birthday present of a week's delay. According to Alaska law, suspending his license is required upon conviction of a felony. If he were to win his felony appeal, he can then appeal the suspension.

The US Senate also delayed it's vote to oust Mr. Stevens from the Republican caucus, hoping that the election results would make such a vote moot. He would still have the right to vote in the coming week's lame duck session, unless some bold Republican moves to oust him from the senate entirely, which is unlikely.

Mr. Stevens today was insisting that he would win the election. Why can't he just concede and retire like a gentleman? I'm sure his colleagues would appreciate the gesture, and probably find some kind things to say about his long career, ever since Alaska obtained statehood! Instead, he's just withering as we watch.

Friday, November 14, 2008

Count, Count and Recount

The counting in Alaska continues. Good news for Mark Begich(D) who is now up by 1061 votes. Lots more votes to count on Monday and particularly on Tuesday. He's up by .4% so is still in Recount territory. With his momentum, hopefully he will exceed the .5% automatic recount threshold. One never knows about Ted Stevens though. He's appealing his 7 felony convictions, so don't expect him not to demand a recount as well. Can't he just retire PLEASE!

Is America Ready for Same-Sex Marriage?

To disallow same-sex marriage by claiming that gay couples can have all the same rights under a civil union flies in the face of a plethora of civil and equal rights decisions by the Supreme Court. For example, desegregation rulings declared that "separate but equal" is not equal enough under the Equal Protection clause of the Constitution. To bar same-sex marriages with this logic would open the door for the return of "Jim Crow" laws against minority groups of all types.

Ready or not, America cannot afford to go backwards to an era of "separation".

California's passage of Proposition 8 poses additional concerns going far beyond same-sex marriage. Using the initiative process to modify the state constitution via a simple plurality vote bypasses the court's jurisdiction and responsibility to protect the rights of the minority against the majority. The proposition reverses the change the court made in determining that the rights of the minority had been abridged. The suit filed against prop. 8 with the court seeks not only to throw out the proposition's results, but will have the effect of throwing out the entire process by which the California State Constitution can be modified. It is a landmark state constitutional question that needs to be answered. The initiative process is too easily influenced by outside special interests. Compared to the process required to modify the US Constitution, it is clearly lacking in the protections and oversight necessary to prevent abuse.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Sarah Palin's Future

As Sarah Palin makes the rounds of the network interviews, it seems as if she can't stop talking. For all appearances, she seems out to prove that she can talk to the media, although from what I've seen, the McCain campaign wasn't wrong to limit those opportunities. I'm still waiting for something coherent or of substance to be uttered by the former Republican running mate, and I've had no indication that it will be forthcoming anytime soon. If she's trying to disprove the polls showing her negative approval ratings and lack of readiness to be president, this media onslaught is not going to help. It may make it worse. She might do well to remember that the those poll numbers got worse the more people were exposed to her, and Obama's campaign really had little to do with it.

If Sen. Ted Steven's lead holds through the inevitable recount, and his felony convictions appeals fail, he'll be expelled from the Senate, forcing a special election in Alaska to replace him. Perhaps that would be the cracked open door Sarah Palin was talking about in recent network interviews that she is looking for her God to show her. She says she will barge through even the slightest opening in a door, clearly indicating that she's interested in a 2012 or 16 race. She would have to resign her position as governor to run for the Senate seat, but would be setting herself up for a future national campaign.

It would also be a good escape from the Governor's office. Since the price of oil has dropped down to around $60, Alaska's budget may actually face a budget shortfall next year with the drastic drop in oil tax revenue. The huge surplus they ran last year, that Palin refunded to Alaskans this year, goes away next year if oil stays below about $70. All signs are that it would be good to NOT be governor of Alaska next year.

Since Palin took office, she bet heavy on the price of oil staying high to pay for the big tax cuts and cash payouts she is so popular for. It looked great short term, but her budget strategy of taxing oil to replace more traditional and stable sources of revenue made government revenue highly dependent on the price of oil, and that has been in rapid decline to less than 40% of it's peak this year. With the current global recession, America's move to diversified energy under Obama's energy plan, and the Alaska natural gas pipeline at least 20 years away, the horizon for Alaska's economic largess is near. They are in an economic crisis, but "the fundamentals of the economy are strong". All of Palin's "experience" may be found wanting.

If she did end up running for the senate seat (and it's not clear that she would even have that opportunity), she could likely be facing Mark Begich, mayor of Anchorage and Steven's current opponent (if he could afford another run). It would not be a cakewalk. The economic reality of Alaska's oil revenue dependence might have started to show up in the state budget, and Palin has not been able to organize a state level campaign organization while running for national office.

As governor, when that extra check won't come next year, the budget is in crisis, and the taxes that were cut are put back in place, her popularity will quickly sour. Funny how a budget surplus, boldly distributed directly to state residents, will become a political liability as her speculation with the state budget on the price of oil comes to light. Using that surplus to ensure stability in the state budget would have been a better choice. Her failure to hedge the state's risk on the volatility of it's revenue stream will cost her political capital.

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

The Election Isn't Over Till It's Over

What you say?
Yes, the electoral college is yet to vote, and elections are yet to be certified. But we all know the outcome right? Let's look at Missouri.

The race has tightened over the last week. McCain now leads by less than 5,000 votes out of something close to 3 million. There are some 7,000 provisional ballots yet to be counted. 3,200 votes were recently 'found' in the electronic voting machines when it was discovered that they weren't tallied properly by poll workers. Until the election is certified in a couple of weeks, no one can request a recount. Why a recount? What's at stake? Missouri's bellwether status!

More important undecided races (unless your from Missouri of course) are Senate races. In Michigan, there are about 200 votes out of almost 3 million deciding the race between Franken(D) and Coleman(R). The lawyers are now wrangling over the recount process ala Florida 2000. In Georgia, the race is starting all over, with Chambliss(R) getting only 49.8% in a state where a plurality is required to win. It looks like every Republican presidential candidate from the primaries will be down there campaigning - McCain, Huckabee, Guliani and Romney are all slated to hit the campaign trail. Obama is sending aids from his campaign staff to assist Jim Martin (D) in getting all those people who voted for Obama to turn out again for this new battle. Too bad they didn't all vote for Martin to begin with. It seem there were a lot of ballots cast for Obama that didn't vote the rest of the ticket.

Of course, there is still the pending election in Alaska, where recently convicted felon and incumbent Ted Stevens is still leading by a few thousand votes. There are over 90,000 votes yet to be counted (mostly absentee ballots), half of which should be counted by this weekend. His opponent, Mark Begich will probably benefit from the absentee and early voter counts that are going on now. Of course, if things tighten up, there will probably be a call for a recount, and more lawyers arguing and deadlines for election certification looming. In any case, South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint (R) is calling for a vote next week to eject Stevens from the Republican caucus. While not exactly expulsion from the senate (the GOP wants to wait until his appeals process is complete), it would remove him from any committees and any Republican only decision making process. At least one conservative Senator has some integrity left.

A lot of pundits are questioning the turnout and results in Alaska. I'm sure that many questions will be asked more aggressively if a recount gets underway. Alaska is the only state that pollsters got COMPLETELY wrong. Turnout was lower than 2004, even with historically large turnouts for caucuses earlier in the campaign season. No one expected such a low turnout. Pollers expected Stevens to lose by double digits.

Personally, I think that the major media projecting the Obama victory as early as 3pm Alaska time might has suppressed a lot of the turnout. None of the media pundits are giving that much weight, but I do remember how loudly people here in California complained when they called elections before the polls closed. They didn't call the election, but it was everything BUT that, and anyone who listened or watched knew it. So, how should the media be responsible? Should they not project results until polls are closed everywhere? Is that realistic? Tough questions. Perhaps they should run a poll in Alaska and actually find out why people didn't vote.

Why does all this matter? Politically, it matters because the Senate is close to a filibuster proof majority. More importantly, it's about the integrity of the election process in general. There is still a lot of suspicion surrounding the voting process and voter suppression tactics that we've seen in 2000 and 2004.

Elections like the Michigan senate race highlight the need to have certainty not only in the result, but also in the process by which that result is achieved, down to the individual ballot. Quite the task, and I'm not sure that the systems we have are completely up to it.

Watch the process closely. It will tell us a lot about what progress has been made. In Michigan, expect that every absentee ballot that was rejected will be challenged, and probably any recounts that vary or ballots that don't scan. At least there are no hanging chads in Michigan, but optical ballots have those little boxes to fill in, so be prepared!

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Inspiration

Inspiration is the only word I could come up with to describe the overwhelming emotion when watching Obama's speech in Grant Park last night. It was beyond words. Seeing Jesse Jackson in tears watching in the crowd, history unfolding in front of him, you couldn't help but do the same. Nor could many others. I could only think how lucky I am to witness and be a part of this turning point in American history.

True to form, Obama made his moment about all of us. About all of his supporters, and all that supported McCain too. It was a call to service, a reminder that this is the beginning, not an end, and that history will judge us for what happens next, not for what has just transpired. The real work is coming, and it's time to think about what each of us can do to contribute in the new era that has just now begun to unfold.

There were disappointments too last night. Prop 8 passed in California, with 2 similar propositions passing in other states. It wasn't all bad. Connecticut voted down an attempt at a constitutional convention to reverse their gay marriage laws. New York now recognizes gay marriages from Massachusetts. Today's news is that the 1st lawsuits have been filed with the state supreme court here in California. To allow the majority to strip rights away from the minority by a simple majority vote through the initiative process is antithetical to the role of the judiciary in protecting minority rights. This use of the initiative process to strip away constitutional rights, if allowed to stand, sets a dangerous precedent and would destroy the foundational constitutional principle of equal protection. What would be next? The right to free speech? Could the majority use the same process to say, disallow dissent by minority groups or make it illegal to have an Islamic temple in our state, simply by a majority vote to change the constitution? Scary stuff.

In other news, Michigan became the 13th state to allow the medical use of Marijuana. Life isn't all bad! Hopefully, with the new era, federal arm twisting by the DEA will go away.

About the down-ticket races:

Dole lost. Her "Godless" Sunday school teacher (and democrat) opponent, Kay Hagen, put her in her place. Yes, Dole actually called her "Godless".

There are still Senate races out there in limbo today. There will be some recounts. Franken in Minnesota was within a couple of hundred votes. His incumbent Republican opponent declared victory anyway. In Georgia, Jim Martin (D) held the incumbent Saxby Chambliss (R) to only 49.9 %. to his 46.7 A third party candidate got the rest. This means that there will be a run-off election in 30 days. You need 50%+ to win in Georgia. Forces are gathering to wage this campaign. It's just starting there, and it's all about turnout during a run-off election. In Oregon, Jeff Merkley(D) and Gordon Smith(R) are even. Another recount, and also some issues there with ballots being damaged.

And, of course, there is Ted Stevens in Alaska. Convicted, and re-elected? It's anybody's guess as to what happened there. Beglich was ahead in the polls, but from the MudFlats blog in Alaska:
At last count with 99% of precincts reporting Begich trailed Stevens by only 4000 votes, 46.5% to 48%. But don’t write off Begich just yet. There are tens of thousands of votes yet to be counted - almost 50,000 in all. Absentee ballots have yet to be tallied, and more are arriving daily. In addition, any early votes that happened between last Thursday and Election Eve, are still to be counted. What does all this mean? We won’t know the outcome of this race for two weeks.
Despite what the Pundits on TV say, Palin cannot appoint someone to fill the seat. That issue has been decided by the Alaska Supreme Court. There will be a special election if Stevens wins this one because he'll get expelled from the Senate when his appeal is lost, or he ends up in jail. More drama and bad headlines for Republicans. It would have been so much better if he had bowed out last week. One way or another he won't be seated. It's just a question of who will eventually get that post. Hopefully the Dem will just win, and Alaska can move on.

If for some reason the democrats sweep all these Senate races, they will get to the magic 60 if you include the two independents that caucus with the Dems. I have the feeling that Leiberman will get the boot from the Democratic Caucus unless they need him for this purpose.

It seems there will be no shortage of things to blog about over the next few weeks!

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

It's All Over But The Counting

7:05
Ohio goes for Obama ! If the projections hold true, it puts him at 207 without the western states.
With 55 EVs in California alone - we are about done with this whole thing.

I think I'll wait for the numbers to roll in. There are a lot of down-ticket races that are important.

The Election night jitters

5:07pm PST
I can't help it. I'm excited and nervous at the same time, and nothing will settle my stomach until we see the results from Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia and North Dakota.
The big guns at FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics are slowly coming in. They seem to be very careful about results.
5:10 pm
I just checked the map at MSNBC - they update every 2 minutes. They are calling PA, IL, NH, VT, MA, CT, NJ, DE, MD and DC for Obama.. KY, TN, SC, and OK for McCain - 103 to 34 Obama. Amazing since there are no vote tallies on their site. Especially interesting is PA.

5:16 pm
MSNBC shows an 8 pt lead in FL for Obama, with 24% reporting, but isn't calling. Not suprised.
They show a McCain ahead in VA by 13 so who knows. I think a lot of this is exit and Absentee data. The VA number is out of sync with the pre-election polls, so I'm thinking you can't trust any of this much... arrgh!!

5:32pm
Flipped back into fivethirtyeight.com and they have Hagen beating Dole in North Carolina - that's good news for Obama too. AP has called NH for Obama. MSNBC has ME for Obama now, and I'm looking at the state data for VA. It seems they've had a lot of problems polling in the south-east today. There's also a report on CNN about voter suppression activities in the same area that are being investigated. In any case, this is going to be a long night for results for VA.

5:38
McCain is planning his post-election for the Biltmore Hotel in Phoenix. Most guests in the ballroom, but he won't speak from there - he's got a stage set up outside in a rather small area. It looks like a 'designed for media' type event. Small space - specially picked crowd to fill it, while the rest watch on TV. Obama, on the other hand has got Grant Park in Chicago. Space for 70,000 in the secure area - and probably 1,000,000+ total expected to attend. Some rally.. the coast guard is protecting the lake side, and the Secret Service has swept the secure area. They have snipers on the rooftops and the whole bit. That's going to be a heck of a party.

6:48
Well, MSNBC was wrong about Virginia. It's now all tied up - 7,000 votes out of 3.8 Million.
Some of these early projections seem to be just shadows. Georgia is being flagged for McCain based on rural voting results - but the big suburban counties aren't reporting. I think it's going to look like another Virginia.

6:55
What ever happened to not reporting the results until ALL the polls are closed? Western states are still voting !! This year Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado are all in play.
Well, maybe Colorado was decided yesterday.. they had early voting there that was a very large part of the total vote count.

Anyway - I'll be back to continue this blog later - after the dust has settled a bit.
My nerves can't stand it anymore!

Monday, November 3, 2008

Election Eve

GO OUT AND VOTE !!!! Honor Mrs. Dunham and elect her grandson.

On the eve of this election I can't help but feel that this will be a historic event. For the 1st time, we have an African-American who not only is leading in the polls, but is leading with an outright majority nationwide. There is far more at stake, however. Here in California, there's Prop. 8 (please vote NO), which I will turn out large numbers of evangelicals. The LDS church is joining with evangelicals to fund the 'yes on 8' campaign. They have delved into politics, not something everyone in the LDS church agrees with, for what it's worth. There's Prop. 4 (please vote NO again), which chips away at a woman's right to privacy by eliminating that right for those under the age of 18. It doesn't outlaw abortion, but rather attacks the fundamental right which is the basis of Roe v. Wade. Since when are constitutional rights magically determined by age?
Sneaking in under the radar on what has been a massive presidential campaign, these Propositions are being funded by right-wing and right-to-life PACs from outside of California. In any other election year, there would be a large outcry.

Obama's rally tonight in Manassas, Virginia drew 90,000 people in a county where George Bush won with 69,000 votes in 2004. But that's just the dot on the I. He's been campaigning in states that were 'Red' and turning out record crowds. St. Louis 100,000, 3 rallies in western states that turned out 250,000. It's been that way all across the country, and been that way for weeks. It is the Obama Phenomena. Curious what a crowd of 90,000 looks like in the middle of the night? Here's a picture of part of the crowd posted by a blogger. As far as the eye can see and beyond.



Meanwhile, McCain and Palin are hitting midnight rallies in Nevada and Arizona tonight to crowds of hundreds. Crowds that fit into a high school gym. In Tampa, McCain started the day with a crowd of 1,000 when 10,000 were expected.

The Obama Phenomena is changing the Electoral map. States that haven't been in play for decades, are now 'toss up' or leaning Obama. Not only does that provide a multitude of ways for Obama to get to the needed 270, it's had a dramatic impact on the down-ticket races for Senate and Congressional seats. No one was thinking that we might get to 60 Democratic Senate seats even 6 weeks ago. If you believe the polls, that possibility is very real. Although still not likely, most pollsters get to that number by including "Independents" like Lieberman (what a jerk).

You've probably noticed that I've not been blogging on the polls lately. It's not that I'm not following them. On the contrary.. I watch these sites and read all the data I can.
RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight are two sites run by wonks that crunch numbers to excess. You can watch the campaign maps of CNN and MSNBC. You can look at Intrade Prediction Markets which would have you trade on the predictions like the stock market.

Here's my take on the polls. They show a steady Obama lead nationwide. The variance day-to-day of the tracking polls are all within the margins of error. There hasn't been any indication of a change in trend. Has it tightened up? Maybe. Not significantly. The national polls tend to not include votes for Nader and Barr.. some say that will be 2-3 %. Interestingly enough, most polls show that Nader and Barr overall will hurt McCain more than Obama. More important are the State-by-State numbers. This election is won State-by-State; something we don't have to tell Al Gore. In all of the toss-up states except perhaps North Carolina, Obama holds some kind of lead. Even there and Missouri, McCain's "lead" is less than 1 %. On the other hand, Georgia, North Dakota, Montana, and Arizona are now 'toss-up'; being within the margins of error.

Here's my problem with the polls. They don't reflect those tens of (or hundreds) of thousands of people that are showing up at the Obama rallies. Either voter turnout from these energized individuals will be the lowest in history or the polls are just not paying attention. The polls have their methods and they stick to them. I think they will learn a new lesson this year about how the dynamics of this election are not being reflected in their numbers.

Here's an example:
In GEORGIA- for all pollsters a 'red' state. Latest polls show McCain's lead down at about the margin of error, in some cases down to 1 point. However here's news that the pollsters didn't pick up. We see this reported at FiveThirtyEight.com today. They don't poll, they run simulations based on other people's polling data.

1,994,990 people voted early in Georgia. 3,301,875 total voted in Georgia's presidential race in 2004. That, with insanely long lines for early voters.

On the Road: Atlanta, Georgia details the 550, 000 new voters registered, the 33 offices, 175 staging areas, at least one in every county, and a highly organized and active volunteer organization.

Indeed, Obama is doing better with white voters in Georgia than either Kerry or Gore. In early voting, African-American voting was 35%. 25% is the historic level. As for totals after election day comes and goes, Adelman said, "anything over 30% and we're gonna win."

The other problem I have with the polls is the early voting movement. No one knows how to account for the early voters, especially in the battleground states. It will be interesting to see if they are more influenced by the GOTV from the campaigns than the electorate in general. Many of these voters are VERY motivated; standing in line for hours. Why, I'm not sure. Perhaps it is from the fear of being disenfranchised as happened in some areas in 2004.
In any case, far more people are voting early - 1/3 of all voters in Virginia voted early. So much for the last 72 hour 'push' by the campaigns.

I'm sure there will be plenty of analysis to listen to tomorrow.
I think there is going to be a big surprise. Obama is going to get results that the polls just don't measure.

In the mean time, there is this: Washington lost this weekend. Some say that means a Democratic win (football fans!).

Then there is this - Dixville Notch, NH polls opened at midnight and closed shortly thereafter. Obama wins 15 to 6 (votes!). It's the 1st result of the night, and not necessarily a good bell weather, however they haven't voted for a Democrat since Humphrey in 1968.

Find me blogging the news tomorrow. !!!

Friday, October 31, 2008

Yet Another Conservative Endorsement

In today's "The Economist" - an endorsement for Barack Obama "It's Time"
Now America has to choose between them. The Economist does not have a vote, but if it did, it would cast it for Mr Obama. We do so wholeheartedly: the Democratic candidate has clearly shown that he offers the better chance of restoring America’s self-confidence.

30 Minutes in History

Barack Obama's 30 minute long form advertisement aired Wednesday night. It will go down in history as a masterful success. Millions watched it - Hopefully undecided and moderate Republicans that will now vote Obama. I think we'll see a bounce in the polls announced this weekend.

The last time something like this was done was Ross Perot and his now infamous 'flip chart' presentation. There was a lesson to be learned from that; and Obama's team learned it.

Never mind the content, Obama's choice of the team to conceive, produce and film this project says something about himself. He makes the right choices, and surrounds himself with the finest, most professional experts available. The award winning filmmaker who put this together is a perfectionist, and it shows.

And what about the content?
Obama sends a message of Hope and Unification mixed with personal stories of people that exemplify what is 'right' about America. He adds his personal narration, and stories from his own life, connecting with the listener. He makes the argument that he knows and cares about the average American by example, not in words. He moves smoothly from big concepts to specific policies, and back again. In this presentation, what comes through loud and clear is that he "gets it". "It's not about me, it's about all of you" he says from the campaign trail. No place is that clearer than in this video:

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Keeping Up

Ok, so I missed a day... so let's get to it! I've been busy following this, stirring the pot and commenting and emailing wherever I can.

In a previous post Beyond Repudiation, I discussed the smear campaign in Pennsylvania targeting the Jewish vote with an email linking a vote to Obama to the Holocaust. I filed an action request with the Anti-Defamation League and got a direct email response. I hope I was one of thousands that asked for action. In any case, their response was appreciated. The Press Release has helped raise some additional media attention. Sadly, it seems that CNN has not seen fit to PRINT a single word on this whole mess. NOTHING!! I sent the tip to them, suggested the story to them, then sent a message to AC360's Keeping Them Honest, blasting their producers for ignoring it. Since, I've heard Lou Dobbs mention it, and one other reference to liberal bloggers, but no call beyond my own for action on the part of the McCain campaign to repudiate it's signatory, who is still on his national staff. I guess it would be too much to expect of the McCain campaign anyway. At least there is this:

Dear Mr. Ben-Yehuda, We released a statement to the press and published it on our web site. You can see the statement by following this link. http://www.adl.org/PresRele/HolNa_52/5379_52.htm
If you have any other questions, please contact me at the number below.
Best
Kevin O’Grady
Kevin O'Grady, Ed.D.
Regional Director
Anti-Defamation League
Orange County/Long Beach Regional Office
kogrady@adl.org
714-979-4733 FAX: 714-979-4138
http://www.adl.org/


And then there is this story that went out on the AP: Ex-PA judge - Sorry

It's getting picked up by AP affiliates all over...
CNN - they had their chance. I think they've lost their edge.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Just Say No

Dozens Of Call Center Workers In Indiana Walk Off Job In Protest Rather Than Read McCain Script Attacking Obama.
"We were asked to read something saying [Obama and Democrats] were against protecting children from danger," this worker said. "I wouldn't do it. A lot of people left. They thought it was disgusting."
The campaign coincided with a robo-slime call running in other states. Robocalling is illegal in Indiana, which is why it was being read by call center workers.

The Top Ten Reasons Conservatives Should Vote For Obama

Andrew Sullivan blogs:

10. A body blow to racial identity politics. An end to the era of Jesse Jackson in black America.

9. Less debt. Yes, Obama will raise taxes on those earning over a quarter of a million. And he will spend on healthcare, Iraq, Afghanistan and the environment. But so will McCain. He plans more spending on health, the environment and won't touch defense of entitlements. And his refusal to touch taxes means an extra $4 trillion in debt over the massive increase presided over by Bush. And the CBO estimates that McCain's plans will add more to the debt over four years than Obama's. Fiscal conservatives have a clear choice.

8. A return to realism and prudence in foreign policy. Obama has consistently cited the foreign policy of George H. W. Bush as his inspiration. McCain's knee-jerk reaction to the Georgian conflict, his commitment to stay in Iraq indefinitely, and his brinksmanship over Iran's nuclear ambitions make him a far riskier choice for conservatives. The choice between Obama and McCain is like the choice between George H.W. Bush's first term and George W.'s.

7. An ability to understand the difference between listening to generals and delegating foreign policy to them.

6. Temperament. Obama has the coolest, calmest demeanor of any president since Eisenhower. Conservatism values that kind of constancy, especially compared with the hot-headed, irrational impulsiveness of McCain.

5. Faith. Obama's fusion of Christianity and reason, his non-fundamentalist faith, is a critical bridge between the new atheism and the new Christianism.

4. A truce in the culture war. Obama takes us past the debilitating boomer warfare that has raged since the 1960s. Nothing has distorted our politics so gravely; nothing has made a rational politics more elusive.

3. Two words: President Palin.

2. Conservative reform. Until conservatism can get a distance from the big-spending, privacy-busting, debt-ridden, crony-laden, fundamentalist, intolerant, incompetent and arrogant faux conservatism of the Bush-Cheney years, it will never regain a coherent message to actually govern this country again. The survival of conservatism requires a temporary eclipse of today's Republicanism. Losing would be the best thing to happen to conservatism since 1964. Back then, conservatives lost in a landslide for the right reasons. Now, Republicans are losing in a landslide for the wrong reasons.

1. The War Against Islamist terror. The strategy deployed by Bush and Cheney has failed. It has failed to destroy al Qaeda, except in a country, Iraq, where their presence was minimal before the US invasion. It has failed to bring any of the terrorists to justice, instead creating the excrescence of Gitmo, torture, secret sites, and the collapse of America's reputation abroad. It has empowered Iran, allowed al Qaeda to regroup in Pakistan, made the next vast generation of Muslims loathe America, and imperiled our alliances. We need smarter leadership of the war: balancing force with diplomacy, hard power with better p.r., deploying strategy rather than mere tactics, and self-confidence rather than a bunker mentality.

Those conservatives who remain convinced, as I do, that Islamist terror remains the greatest threat to the West cannot risk a perpetuation of the failed Manichean worldview of the past eight years, and cannot risk the possibility of McCain making rash decisions in the middle of a potentially catastrophic global conflict. If you are serious about the war on terror and believe it is a war we have to win, the only serious candidate is Barack Obama.

Monday, October 27, 2008

McCain Aides Comment on Palin

Dana Bash travels with the McCain campaign and reports on CNN some pretty damaging stuff.

Quoting sources within the campaign:

"She is a diva. She takes no advice from anyone," this McCain adviser said. "She does not have any relationships of trust with any of us, her family or anyone else.

"Also, she is playing for her own future and sees herself as the next leader of the party. Remember: Divas trust only unto themselves, as they see themselves as the beginning and end of all wisdom."

A Palin associate defended her, saying that she is "not good at process questions" and that her comments on Michigan and the robocalls were answers to process questions.

The Politico reported Saturday on Palin's frustration, specifically with McCain advisers Nicolle Wallace and Steve Schmidt. They helped decide to limit Palin's initial media contact to high-profile interviews with Charlie Gibson of ABC and Katie Couric of CBS, which all McCain sources admit were highly damaging.

In response, Wallace e-mailed CNN the same quote she gave the Politico: "If people want to throw me under the bus, my personal belief is that the most honorable thing to do is to lie there."

But two sources, one Palin associate and one McCain adviser, defended the decision to keep her media interaction limited after she was picked, both saying flatly that she was not ready and that the missteps could have been a lot worse. They insisted that she needed time to be briefed on national and international issues and on McCain's record.

"Her lack of fundamental understanding of some key issues was dramatic," said another McCain source with direct knowledge of the process to prepare Palin after she was picked. The source said it was probably the "hardest" to get her "up to speed than any candidate in history."

I'm thinking that Wallace and Schmidt wish they'd had another month to prepare her for those interviews. Her lack of "fundamental understanding" is still dramatic.

CNN contributor and Republican strategist Ed Rollins said Palin was "mishandled" during the earlier part of the campaign, and as a result, "she's become a target of a lot of ridicule."

But, he said, "She definitely is going to be the most popular Republican in this country when this thing is over."

I disagree with Rollins assessment that she was "mishandled". Wallace and Schmidt weren't given much to work with and did not have enough time to get the job done. I lay the blame on McCain's late decision, not on Wallace and Schmidt for this one.

To say she is the "most popular Republican" with polls showing Palin's unfavorables outweighing her favorables, is a pretty sad comment on the state of the Republican party.

Sunday, October 26, 2008

McCain in 2000 - There's Nothing Wrong with the Wealthy Paying More

There is nothing better than showing how John McCain has flip-flopped on his primary tax issue that he's trying to hammer Obama with. In 2000, John McCain was preaching Obama's tax plan - wealthy pay a little more, tax cuts for the middle class. Now he's preaching the opposite. Where's the honor?

Here you go.. in his own words.

Beyond Repudiation

I'm not sure how I can express the level of anger and disgust that I feel reading the following story.

I'm sorry folks, but there needs to be legislation that makes this kind of defamation illegal, no matter what the circumstance. It is beyond simple repudiation. I certainly hope that the backlash from this becomes national news.

Matt Yglesias reports on his blog: Ja, Wir Können? and also reported in the New York Times

Pennsylvania GOP warns Keystone State Jews that Barack Obama is going to send us chosen folk into the ovens:

A new e-mail making the rounds among Jewish voters in Pennsylvania this week falsely alleged that Mr. Obama “taught members of Acorn to commit voter registration fraud,’’ and equated a vote for Senator Barack Obama with the “tragic mistake” of their Jewish ancestors, who “ignored the warning signs in the 1930’s and 1940’s.” […]

But where most of the attack e-mails against Mr. Obama have been mostly either anonymous or from people outside of mainstream politics, this one had an unusually official provenance: It was sponsored by the Pennsylvania Republican Party’s “Victory 2008” committee.

And it was signed by several prominent McCain supporters in the state: Mitchell L. Morgan, a top fund-raiser; Hon. Sandra Schwartz Newman, a member of Mr. McCain’s national task-force monitoring Election Day voting, and I. Michael Coslov, a steel industry executive.

Judge Newman, a former state supreme court justice now in private practice, helped author the letter.

After several calls for comment about the e-mail, leaders of the state party repudiated it on Friday. They said it had been released without their authorization and that they had fired the strategist who helped draft it, Bryan Rudnick.

He said the e-mail was sent to 75,000 voters in Pennsylvania and asked that other questions be e-mailed to him. Mr. Rudnick did not respond to that e-mail. But, contacted again on Friday night, Mr. Rudnick disputed the party’s version of events and said he had approval for the letter from officials at several levels.

Text of the email in part:

"Jewish Americans cannot afford to make the wrong decision on Tuesday, November 4th, 2008," the e-mail reads. "Many of our ancestors ignored the warning signs in the 1930s and 1940s and made a tragic mistake. Let's not make a similar one this year!"

A copy of the e-mail, provided by Democratic officials, says it was "Paid for by the Republican Federal Committee of PA - Victory 2008."

It warns "Fellow Jewish Voters" of the danger of a second Holocaust due to the threats to Israel from its neighbors and touts Republican presidential candidate John McCain's qualifications over those of Obama.

News from Alaska - OBAMA !!!

Two news items today from Alaska.
1st - A rally in Anchorage turns out hundreds of people in freezing cold weather to create a human OBAMA logo. Dressing in red, white and blue ponchos, an enthusiastic crowd of Obama supporters turned out in this grassroots effort. Pictures in the link. Remember that there are only 600,000 people in all of Alaska, so turning out this size crowd with a grassroots organization says something! Here's another link from Alaska Daily News

2nd - The Alaska Daily News, the largest newspaper in Alaska has endorsed-- BARACK OBAMA !!! Read the story by following the link. It's a great endorsement - well thought out. Here's a snippit:

Gov. Palin's nomination clearly alters the landscape for Alaskans as we survey this race for the presidency -- but it does not overwhelm all other judgment. The election, after all is said and done, is not about Sarah Palin, and our sober view is that her running mate, Sen. John McCain, is the wrong choice for president at this critical time for our nation

Sen. Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee, brings far more promise to the office. In a time of grave economic crisis, he displays thoughtful analysis, enlists wise counsel and operates with a cool, steady hand. The same cannot be said of Sen. McCain.

It seems Alaskans are more clear-headed than the right side of the Republican party. The lack of support in Alaska might mean the idea of Palin 2012 that's being floated by some of the national media may not be viable. Of course, to be viable, it would require that she resonate with people outside of the right wing of the Republican party. So far, that doesn't seem to be happening - and with her negatives larger than her positives at this point, it's not likely to change.

Friday, October 24, 2008

McCain Blasts Bush -- Shoots Self Again

John McCain lashed out at George Bush and the entire Republican party in an interview with Washington Times reporters Joseph Curl and Stephen Dinan. He's desperately trying to separate himself from the rest of the party and Bush's record, but the problem is that he's voted with Bush 90% of the time. When he criticizes them, he criticizes himself. It's inescapable.
"We just let things get completely out of hand," he said of his own party's rule in the past eight years.

"Spending, the conduct of the war in Iraq for years, growth in the size of government, larger than any time since the Great Society, laying a $10 trillion debt on future generations of America, owing $500 billion to China, obviously, failure to both enforce and modernize the [financial] regulatory agencies that were designed for the 1930s and certainly not for the 21st century, failure to address the issue of climate change seriously," Mr. McCain said in an interview with The Washington Times. "Those are just some of them," he said with a laugh

In addition to the long list of failures he attributed to Mr. Bush, Mr. McCain blamed the president for supporting the Medicare prescription-drug bill, saying, "They didn't pay for it."
I'm sure he's not making any friends with his congressional collegues over this, being that they have enough problems getting re-elected without getting blasted from their own party's candidate. We have Palin campaigning to energize the right side of the republican party, most of whom support Bush, and now McCain is doing the opposite.

It's tough to make headway when rowing in the opposite direction from your shipmate.

Taking Back the VP Bet

1st off - Let's not forget to say a prayer for Barry's grandma. She did a great job raising her grandson. I hope she makes it to see him inaugurated January 20th


Ok.. Now this is great..
While Barack Obama is in Hawaii visiting his gravely ill grandmother, Sarah and Todd Palin are taking a day off to greet a visitor in St. Louis. They are meeting a special prosecutor from the state of Alaska to give depositions in the ongoing investigation of abuse of power, ethics violations, and mis-use of government funds/property by Sarah Palin as governor.




Hope this helps raise a smile on another bad day on Wall St.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Palin Denies Accepting $150K In Designer Clothes

Excuse this drift into the minutia. When you iconize your campaign with images such as 'Joe the Plumber', this Icon becomes relevant.

If you thought that McCain's been living in a bubble when it comes to Sarah Palin it's nothing compared to the bubble surrounding Sarah Palin herself.

ORMOND BEACH, FLA. (AP) - Sarah Palin is blaming gender bias for the controversy over $150,000 worth of designer clothes, hairstyling and accessories the Republican Party provided for her, a newspaper reported Thursday.

Palin, who is John McCain's vice presidential running mate, said the clothes were not worth $150,000 and were bought for the Republican National Convention. (What, does she think we can't add up the numbers reported by the RNC?).

Most of the clothes have never left the campaign plane, she told the newspaper. (what a waste- more clothes then she can even wear)

"It's kind of painful to be criticized for something when all the facts are not out there and are not reported," Palin said.

"That whole thing is just, bad!" she said. "Oh, if people only knew how frugal we are."(Frugal? - emphasis added- Yes, tell us again how frugal $23,500 for the convention speech outfit is)

McCain was asked several questions on Thursday about the shopping spree _ and he answered each one more or less the same way: Palin needed clothes and they'll be donated to charity.

"She needed clothes at the time. They'll be donated at end of this campaign. They'll be donated to charity," McCain told reporters on his campaign bus between Florida rallies.

Asked for details on how they'll be donated, McCain said, "It works by her getting some clothes when she was made the nominee of the party and it will be donated back to charity."

Asked if he was surprised at the amount spent, McCain said, "It works that the clothes will be donated to charity. Nothing surprises me."

I guess this means that if McCain and Palin win the election, all those clothes are going to be donated, and she'll have to start all over again. Maybe McCain subconsciously admitted that they're not going to win?

I'm left wondering. Are those $5000 blazers and $1500 pumps are going to show up at a Salvation Army or Goodwill Industries store somewhere? Perhaps they'll have an auction, so that the party faithful can clamor over their spoils; donating the proceeds to the needy or homeless. Oh.. sorry.. that would turn Palin into a 'celebrity' - a 'dirty word' McCain used to attack Obama.

Well, maybe it's best we just leave the question unanswered too.
In any case, $150k at Neiman Marcus, Saks and Macy's is raising eyebrows, and questions.

Also on Thursday, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics, a private watchdog group in Washington, filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission against Palin, the Republican National Committee and several political operatives alleging that the purchase of clothing for Palin and her family violates Federal Election Campaign Act.

It raises another question for me. Who is paying for all those kids traveling around the country with Palin - and shouldn't they be in school? I don't recall McCain selecting the Palin FAMILY for the VP position. Is Palin paying their hotel and food costs (we know the clothes were paid for by the RNC)?

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

McCain's Latest Twist

Joe Biden opened a door at a Sunday fundraiser, stating:
"It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy. ... We're going to have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy."
Now, not withstanding the fact that an international crisis has tested every recent new president within 6 months, John McCain jumped all over the comment as an opportunity to invoke the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 to incite fear and uncertainty about Obama's readiness to lead. He handled it like everything else he does that hasn't been carefully scripted in advance by his campaign team: He blew it. He said:
“We don’t want a president who invites testing from the world at a time when our economy is in crisis and Americans are already fighting in two wars,”
Then, McCain veered off script to expound:
“Sen. Biden referred to how Jack Kennedy was tested in the Cuban Missile Crisis. My friends, I had a little personal experience in that,” McCain said. “I was on board the USS Enterprise. I sat in the cockpit of a flight deck on the USS Enterprise off of Cuba. I had a target. My friends, do you know how close we came to nuclear war? America will not have a president who needs to be tested. I’ve been tested my friends.”
McCain was tested by sitting in a cockpit on an aircraft carrier? President Kennedy sure didn't call him on the radio to ask his advice on how to resolve the situation. Maybe if he was close enough to see Cuba on the horizon, he can claim, Palin style, that he's an expert on Cuban affairs.

What does any of it have to do with being tested? However brave his military exploits, it was all about following orders, not making international policy decisions or negotiating solutions. Thank you John for reminding us all that your military service does not equate to crisis decision making or foreign policy readiness. Thanks also for reminding us just how old you are.

If anything, this confirms how erratic McCain's campaign is. It's pulled him off onto a new tangent. I have to wonder if Biden's comments were intended to do just that.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

McCain and the Decline of the Republican Party

McCain spends his time at the rallies lately bashing Obama's tax cuts, carefully choosing to quote 'Joe the Plumber' when calling it 'socialism'. At the same time he proposes a 30% tax cut for corporations - from 35% to 25%. On the campaign trail, he tries to separate himself from GW Bush saying he wants to take America in a new direction, but doesn't say what that direction is. It's simply rhetoric, with nothing to back it up.

The reality is that his own plan for the economy is basically the same as the disaster that GW Bush has had for the last 8 years. Remove regulation and provide huge tax breaks for the large corporations and the generosity will 'trickle down' to the rest of us who work for a paycheck. The problem with that approach is that it assumes corporations are socially benevolent organizations. In practice, the last 8 years especially have shown that the CEOs, executives and shareholders will line their pockets with profits while continuing to cut operating expenses by shipping jobs overseas. He wants to do the same thing to health care, but we have already seen that absent regulation, health care corporations will deny services, and insurance companies will deny claims.

In the past, McCain came out against the Bush tax cuts, calling them 'irresponsible' while the country was at war. Now he wants to cut taxes on corporations even more, while continuing to wage war in Iraq and Afghanistan with a cost of over $10 BILLION a MONTH. Who is going to pay for this tax cut? All the rest of us. What has ruined our economy? People cannot continue to 'spend' money they don't have to support an economy while it is being sucked dry by military spending. The credit has been used up, the well is dry. We need to stop spending that money overseas on bullets, and instead spend it here at home on our veterans and on our infrastructure and in ways that produce positive economic results at home.

Obama's tax plan isn't 'socialism'. Taxes - all taxes- are always about 'redistributing the wealth' in one form or another. Our country has come to expect certain services from our government. To suggest that the lower and middle class have been paying too much of the cost, and that the wealthy can afford to pay a little more is what I call 'fairness', not 'socialist'.

The ideals of the Reagan era Republican Party are gone. They have been replaced with greed, power brokering, nation building, corruption and the worst kind of whisper campaigns that use fear mongering, racial prejudice and McCarthyism. Code words like 'terrorist', 'muslim', 'arab' and 'associates with' have no business in a political campaign. It's disgusting, narrow minded and reminds me of the tactics that GW Bush, Carl Rove, and Dick Cheney used to invoke the eras of McCarthy and Wallace in whipping up sentiment to support their hidden agenda of war with Iraq while suppressing their detractors.

This is a dangerous ploy that has to stop. It will divide our country and set us back 50 years. We must not allow candidates to use these tactics and simply deny the obvious truth. They must be held accountable for stoking the embers of extremism in this country. We can stop it with our voices in the press, and we MUST stop it with our votes at the polls.

Monday, October 20, 2008

Block the Vote

This article, written by ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. & GREG PALAST appeared in Rolling Stone Magazine. Why isn't the mainstream media pounding this story hard? Contact your local media, Ireport or Keeping Them Honest for CNN, MSNBC, etc. and ask them why they are not covering this outrageous national Voter Fraud (by exclusion) campaign.

Here's a bit from the article:

These days, the old west rail hub of Las Vegas, New Mexico, is little more than a dusty economic dead zone amid a boneyard of bare mesas. In national elections, the town overwhelmingly votes Democratic: More than 80 percent of all residents are Hispanic, and one in four lives below the poverty line. On February 5th, the day of the Super Tuesday caucus, a school-bus driver named Paul Maez arrived at his local polling station to cast his ballot. To his surprise, Maez found that his name had vanished from the list of registered voters, thanks to a statewide effort to deter fraudulent voting. For Maez, the shock was especially acute: He is the supervisor of elections in Las Vegas.

Maez was not alone in being denied his right to vote. On Super Tuesday, one in nine Democrats who tried to cast ballots in New Mexico found their names missing from the registration lists. The numbers were even higher in precincts like Las Vegas, where nearly 20 percent of the county's voters were absent from the rolls.


Sunday, October 19, 2008

Colin Powell Endorses Barack Obama

Meet the Press was the forum for this important endorsement by a key Republican.

It was not only an endorsement, but a major critical assessment of both campaigns and both candidates. Powell was particularly critical of McCain's campaign, and the RNC. He highlighted McCain's erratic handling of the economic crisis, his pick of Palin, and use of Ayers as several examples of problems he has with McCain. He called Obama a 'transformational candidate' and cited his steady hand, his substance and his style and ability to inspire in his decision to endorse Obama. He had a lot critical to say about the republican party and campaign with it's narrowing and negative focus. Here's a clip from the show to watch.

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Marriage Squeaker in California

The fight for civil marriage equality in California is a dead heat in the latest poll.

We all need to get out the vote against Prop. 8. A LOT of money is being spent by out-of-state evangelical organizations get this 'marriage' constitutional amendment passed to overturn the California Supreme Court ruling.

Republican voter fraud

This in today's LA Times:
Voters say they were duped into registering as Republicans
YPM, a group hired by the GOP, allegedly deceived Californians who thought they were signing a petition. YPM denies any wrongdoing. Similar accusations have been leveled against the company elsewhere.

The Times randomly interviewed 46 of the hundreds of voters whose election records show they were recently re-registered as Republicans by YPM, and 37 of them -- more than 80% -- said that they were misled into making the change or that it was done without their knowledge.

Friday, October 17, 2008

The American Promise

Watch the video, get inspired. With all the negative BS on the news, it's easy to forget the positive message of hope and inspiration that this man brings.



If you have time to help, use up your cell minutes this month and make some calls.

FRAUD

People for the American Way have published this full page ad in the NYT about ACORN. The Republicans will be back to their old tricks again of voter suppression, and they are going to be working it hardest in those Red states that are polling purple/blue.

http://site.pfaw.org/site/PageServer?pagename=ads_fraud

I disagree with one point in the ad. When people are 'warned' via anonymous flyers that if they have outstanding traffic tickets they may get arrested if they go to the polls, it could actually happen. In many states, police routinely set up roadblocks and check for registration and traffic scofflaws. All it takes is a little encouragement by local (or sometimes non-local) politicians to make sure that come election day, in certain districts, that 'routine' roadblocks just happen to be set up so that you pass through them to get to your local polling place.

This is exactly what people complained about in Florida in 2004. It is sure to happen again. I suggest that people take that 800 number that CNN published to report voter suppression/fraud activites on with them when they drive to their polling place.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Debate number 3 - Monitoring the Independents

The CNN Independent focus group twists the dials for Barack Obama again for debate number 3.
The snap polls taken after the debate

McCain started the debate with 'angry angry angry' and looked that way. The split screen told the tale, looking old, angry, and at times contemptuous. None of those win votes, especially with Independent or undecided voters. Dial responses were muted.

On the other hand, Obama was 'cool and collected', and although a bit tense at the open, seemed to get more comfortable and more focused as the debate wore on. It might have seemed 'boring' to some, but the 'even hand on the tiller' of steady leadership can look that way. Net result - similar muted responses.

In contrast, it makes McCain look even more erratic and disjointed when unsuccessfully trying one attack angle after another to get Obama off course. McCain just seemed to get more angry, more frustrated, and at the end, tired. It seemed the focus group ended the same way; positive responses dropped off while McCain was still dragging out his responses.

McCain sounded hollow when complaining about the Obama's negative ads. It's an unbelievable charge. He's not in a position to whine while he's running 100% negative ads and Palin is stoking the hate mongers on the fringe. No one will believe that Obama is spending the most on negative ads, because he's only about 30% negative compared to the 100% negative of McCain. Every time someone sees an positive issue ad by Obama, they are now going to think ' Gee, McCain was wrong about Obama spending so much on negative ads'. This is definitely going to blow back on McCain, especially if he continues to run negative. Needless to say, you don't win votes with this line.

Obama missed the talking point on Ayers that he was voted Chicago Citizen of the Year in 1987, but responded well about the relationship. He told the story, explained the board, who else was on it, and who funded it - Ronald Reagan's friends the Annenburgs. - McCain hurt himself with outbursts. The diallers show they really aren't that interested. McCain follows up saying that he's not that interested in an old former terrorist, but it's about Obama's being forthcoming about the information. The problem was he said that after Obama just got done with a detailed explanation.

McCain is not believable about 'repudiating' all negative personal attacks. How can he say that when his running mate is busy making negative personal attacks? The dial shows people are not particularly impressed.

McCain has some problems with his arguments lately. When asked about Sarah Palin, he can no longer say 'reformer' without people thinking 'troopergate - abuse of power'. Flat Independent response from women until he touched on 'special needs kids'.. Men seemed to like that 'feisty' part of the 'reformer' word.

As the subjects turned to energy, Obama blew McCain out of the water. Especially when he talked about making high efficiency cars here in the US, not overseas, and working on new energy sources creating jobs in the US. McCain's drill-drill-drill just didn't resonate. The focus group is from Ohio. Job news is hurting this part of the country. McCain ties jobs to energy, but doesn't say how. Bringing up nuclear powered navy ships seems SO detached, McCain's just not relating to the focus group.

Moving on to Health Care, Obama got the twist to full + both with men and women. McCain's $5000 plan got Neg marks with women.. period! Men also dropped down to only slightly +.
McCain's mocking 'zero' response to Obama's statement about fines to small businesses didn't come off. It made him look like he didn't know Obama's plan. Obama continued with a strong response, detailing McCain's plan and it's faults. McCain is clearly out of it on this one. He didn't explain or counter Obama's arguments - he went back to Joe Plumber.. what? He goes off track then veers back. McCain then goes on to explain that his plan would give people $5000, but then would be taxed .. but the kicker is then he says the average health plan costs $5800.. hmm that seems like a $800 loss, and you then have to go out and find coverage for yourself... Good Luck... needless to say he got flat lined by the diallers on that. His arguments were not coherent at all. Obama's explanation of the McCain plan was far more understandable than McCain's attempt at explaining his own position. Probably convinced more than a few that they're better off without McCain's plan.

On the Supreme court issue - McCain came out and said he's for overturning Roe v. Wade. Called himself a Federalist - (stole that one from Palin!) He then got incoherent again.. no litmus test, but someone who's record supports Roe v. Wade would not be qualified .. huh? Talking out of both sides of his mouth. Obama refers back to supporting the Right to Privacy.. gets a strong uptick. Obama gives a strong empathy position - not 'Pro-Abortion'; support providing alternative solutions. Empathy was apparent; give women the choice, but encourage alternatives and prevent pregnancies to begin with. Very Centrist- and probably acceptable to some who lean pro-life, but are not hard line. Common ground approach mentioning sacred sexuality hits TOP marks, men and women! This line provides a way for people to support Obama from both sides of this issue and is reflected in the focus group response.

Obama hits again with Education. Teacher pay is very good point with the dialer twisters, but college hits the mark 100% + especially with women, but also with men. He does it again when he talks about better parenting -- 100% both men and women. Clear win on this one.
McCain harps on Vouchers.. his only answer. Troops returning to work as teachers without credentials gets a strong neg twist from women. Don't blame them... it's a STUPID idea. What qualifies a veteran to be able to teach without appropriate training? Makes NO sense. The visual of that ex-marine standing in front of a bunch of elementary school kids is pretty stark.
Obama comes out and blasts McCain's lack of help for college education, and uses his campaign's flippant response of not being able to accommodate a 'special interest'

Closing speeches were a mis-match. McCain starts, and gets only small responses. He doesn't have much to say. If anything, this should have been his shining moment. He should have been prepared to espouse all his strong points, but doesn't. He basically just asked for people to trust him. That's pretty tough with the sentiment running so negative these days, and some of his erratic answers. No big positives in response. Obama reviews his policy positions and relates them to the people. He gets a fairly strong positive response on the dials, and closes asking for peoples votes. (Don't forget to ask for their votes!!).

McCain set himself up as the angry attack underdog, but that set up a very negative tone. Response was muted. This is a very dangerous mode to go during a debate. If you are successful with the attacks, throwing your opponent off or getting them to change their game plan, and do it in a way that doesn't set a negative tone on your own message, you can win big. It's the kind of tactic that McCain needs because he needs to make a global shift in the campaign. Unfortunately for McCain, his tactic didn't work. He came across with a negative tone, did not throw Obama off his game plan, and didn't deliver a message of his own.

He ended up attacking Obama, but doing it on Obama's turf. That gives Obama control of the response and the debate. In order to work, he needed to attack Obama from his own turf. From his own strengths, he could have attacked without setting a negative tone on his own message.
The problem is that his own strengths aren't very strong. They don't bear critical analysis. They are also in areas that are not as important as they once were to the voters.

UPDATE - CNN snap poll data shows:
By 23 points, those polled said Obama was the stronger leader during the debate. By 48 points, they said Obama was more likeable. Independents went 57% to 31% for Obama as winning the debate. [Those are blow-away numbers. Clearly McCain's attack underdog persona hurt him]
CNN's Electoral College map now is at 277 Obama - more shifts, and some strong red states are now only 'lean McCain'. Interesting to see it change.

I expect a bounce for Obama in the battleground states out of this. I'm also waiting for the press to bring forward the William Timmons lobbyist issue, which mainstream news organizations haven't delivered on yet. Perhaps they were all waiting for the debates to be over. Obama doesn't need to raise this issue, but the press should still let people know about Timmons. He's an example of the worst of Washington insider politics.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

McCain Transition Chief Lobbied for Saddam

There is a lot more to this breaking story if you follow the link to the full report.
So much for being a 'reformer' and bringing 'outside-of-washington' type changes. McCain hiring a lobbyist to head his transition team is bad enough, but this guy isn't just any lobbiest. He was in the middle of the Iraq 'food for oil' corruption disaster. I'm surprised he didn't end up in jail like his cohorts.


Murry Wass reports:

William Timmons, the Washington lobbyist who John McCain has named to head his presidential transition team, aided an influence effort on behalf of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein to ease international sanctions against his regime.

The two lobbyists who Timmons worked closely with over a five year period on the lobbying campaign later either pleaded guilty to or were convicted of federal criminal charges that they had acted as unregistered agents of Saddam Hussein's government.

During the same period beginning in 1992, Timmons worked closely with the two lobbyists, Samir Vincent and Tongsun Park, on a previously unreported prospective deal with the Iraqis in which they hoped to be awarded a contract to purchase and resell Iraqi oil. Timmons, Vincent, and Park stood to share at least $45 million if the business deal went through.

Vincent, an Iraqi-born American citizen with whom Timmons worked most closely, pleaded guilty to federal criminal charges in January 2005 that he had acted as an unregistered agent of Saddam Hussein's regime. Tongsun Park, the second lobbyist who Timmons worked closely with, was convicted by a federal jury in July 2006 on charges that he too violated the Foreign Agent Registration Act.

Timmons testified that he first introduced Vincent to Tongsun Park and encouraged him to hire Park to work on the deal.

At the time Timmons introduced the two men, Park's notorious background was well known:

In the 1970s, Park had admitted to making hundreds of thousands in payments and illegal campaign contributions to U.S. congressmen on behalf of the South Korean government. Park was indicted on 36 counts by a federal grand jury, but fled to South Korea before he could face trial. All of the charges were later dismissed in exchange for Park providing information about which public officials received funds from the South Korean government.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, not long after Timmons suggested that Vincent hire Park to assist their influence, lobbying, and back-channel diplomatic efforts on behalf of Saddam Hussein's government, much of that effort became increasingly bizarre, corrupt, and - on occasion - illegal.

Palin's True Nature


Latest Q-Polls

These surveys of likely voters in Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan were conducted by Quinnipiac University in partnership with washingtonpost.com and The Wall Street Journal.

The polls reflect data collected Oct 8-12 (post debate)
Full survey results are available here

Key Findings Among Likely Voters
Presidential Preference
If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Colorado
McCain (R) 43%
Obama (D) 52%
Michigan
McCain (R) 38%
Obama (D) 54%
Minnesota
McCain (R) 40%
Obama (D) 51%
Wisconsin
McCain (R) 37%
Obama (D) 54%

Monday, October 13, 2008

What happened to Troopergate?

I'm surprised by the lack of coverage on the Sarah Palin Abuse of Power story.
Friday, when the report was released, CNN seemed to be confused by the findings. Obviously, they didn't read it, but relied on the spin of their 'political contributors' (instead of a legal analyst) to tell the story... and it seems they didn't read it either. Since that embarrassing evening, CNN has been strangely quiet; making no almost no mention of it. It seems they'd already blocked their time with the 'Race on Race' story, and weren't going to cover breaking news after flubbing the story out the starting gate.

Rachel Maddow on MSNBC got it right that night.. she read findings directly from the report on the air. Unfortunately, others didn't seem to pick it up. The other news sources were tying this whole thing into one neat package the way the McCain campaign was spinning it; focusing on the 2nd finding's one sentence saying firing Monegan was within her discretion even if the Trooper Wooten issue played a part in the decision.

It seems the Republican spin machine has managed to cloud the issue sufficiently that the weekend news shows didn't even make MENTION of it. WHAT'S GOING ON ???

Here's the specifics - and this is completely clear to anyone who reads the actual report:

There were 2 major findings:
1st - That Governor Palin was guilty of Abuse of Power, and violating the public trust (a violation of state law; ie. criminal) by pressuring, and allowing her Husband to use the office of the Governor to pressure various members of the Alaska State Troopers, and various state officials and personnel agencies to fire Trooper Mike Wooten, her sister's ex-husband.

2nd - That the firing of Walt Monegan was legal, in spite of the fact that his refusal to fire Trooper Wooten likely contributed to the decision.

Now, the McCain campaign and Gov. Palin keep pointing to the 2nd finding - and claim that this exonerates Palin of any wrongdoing. They intentionally combine this with the Abuse of Power finding, to confuse the issues. They are clearly spelled out in the report as separate issues.

The 1st finding is a violation of Alaska State law, and is an impeachable offense. Abuse of Power is a very serious charge. No matter how much the McCain spin team ignore and refuse to address this issue, it is a fact.

Palin's lawyers know it's serious. They issued a 3 page document contesting the findings, claiming that the ethics statute requires financial gain. The report already addresses that point, specifically refuting the 'financial' aspect as a requirement of the law.

The funny thing is looking through the deposition transcripts, it was so heavy handed that it's almost comical. There was NO consideration for what might happen if it were to come to public light; even though the Palin's and others acting on their behalf were warned of the possible legal issues with their continuing to press about a closed case.

Finally there is an article on Time Online now that covers thing pretty well.

I'm waiting to see if the Alaska legislature decides to take further action. Don't be surprised if they wait until after November 4th. If McCain/Palin win, it becomes moot, as she will no longer be Governor. If not, Alaska will be able to clean up the embarrassing mess without the glare and scrutiny the national spotlight.

Friday, October 10, 2008

McCain's Housing proposal - really Frank-Dodd?

I never thought I'd be quoting a NR article, much less agreeing with it. Either McCain is actually proposing the Frank-Dodd bill that is already law and trying to take credit for it while exaggerating on the numbers of homeowners that will benefit, or he's gone completely beyond it with a complete lender bailout with no hope of the taxpayers recovering any of the money spent. Either way, 'his' idea is NOT new. If the latter, it is simply Frank-Dodd with all the restraint and lender responsibility aspects removed. This is exactly what the public at large and house Republicans are so strongly against and what McCain supposedly suspended his campaign to help resolve. He's either out-of-touch with the legislation, or this is a huge flip-flop of $300B proportions.

The editors of the National Review weigh in against McCain's latest proposal in an article titled Frank-Dodd 2008!

Here is what is wrong with McCain’s new housing proposal: It can’t improve on current law without rewarding an unacceptable amount of bad behavior.

Under the Frank-Dodd housing bill that was signed into law last summer, borrowers qualify for a federally subsidized workout only if they meet the following criteria:

1) The borrower must live in his house — no investment properties.
2) The borrower must show that he has been spending at least a third of his income on mortgage payments since March of this year.
3) He must also show that he can afford to make lower payments if his lender agrees to a write-down.

This is obviously a narrow slice of borrowers — around 400,000, according to most estimates. It excludes people who borrowed to buy investment properties in order to flip them for a profit. It excludes people who are hopelessly in over their heads and simply cannot afford the homes they’re in. And it excludes people who could afford to pay their mortgages if they wanted to but have instead decided to mail the keys to the bank rather than continue making payments on a house that is worth less today than when they bought it.

McCain’s campaign says his plan would help “millions” of borrowers stay in their homes without authorizing any new spending. But he has not said how he plans to accomplish this without lowering the standards set forth in the Frank-Dodd bill. And if he does lower the standards — by, for example, letting people who can afford their current payments get a write-down just because their property value has fallen — then he would be offering taxpayer assistance to “ruthless borrowers,” which is an industry term for borrowers who default on their obligations not because they can’t pay but because they’ve decided it’s not in their interest to pay.

McCain’s plan would also be a gift to lenders who abandoned any sense of prudence during the boom years. Under the Frank-Dodd bill, lenders must agree to “take a haircut” — slang for writing down the value of a mortgage — in order to qualify for federal insurance on a distressed mortgage. The lender bears an initial loss but is protected if the borrower eventually defaults. McCain would transfer that initial loss to the taxpayers. Under his plan, the government would buy mortgage loans at face value and then reduce the principal and interest on these loans to accommodate distressed borrowers. Taxpayers would take so many haircuts we would all look like Britney Spears after a three-day bender.

Defenders of McCain’s plan argue that the lenders are already getting a bailout through the Treasury Department’s purchase of mortgage-backed assets from banks and other financial firms. They argue that McCain’s plan actually saves taxpayers money by preventing foreclosures and preserving the value of the assets the Treasury Department is about to buy.

There is a big difference between Treasury’s plan to buy mortgage-backed assets through a reverse auction and McCain’s plan to buy the mortgages themselves at face value. It gets complicated, but here’s the bottom line: There must be a limit to the level of reckless behavior we are prepared to reward in a given bailout, especially if we are only improving on previous bailouts in a marginal way.

The Frank-Dodd housing bill has only been in effect since Oct. 1. It gives lenders who own mortgages ample incentive to work out deals with distressed borrowers and avoid costly foreclosures. It also provides liability protection for loan originators who sold their mortgages to Wall Street. These lenders are authorized to work out deals on behalf of investors in mortgage-backed securities (of which the U.S. government is soon to be the biggest). Most important, Frank-Dodd sets reasonable limits on what kinds of borrowers will be eligible for taxpayer assistance.

We never thought we would defend the Frank-Dodd legislation, which we bitterly opposed last summer. But it looks downright prudent compared to what McCain has proposed. McCain’s plan is a full bailout for lenders, and it cannot do much more than the Frank-Dodd bill without letting “ruthless borrowers” and other reckless types off the hook. It is time to acknowledge that the government has gone as far as it can without creating a level of moral hazard that is unacceptable. Give Frank-Dodd — and the Paulson plan — time to work.

No Press Conference for Palin before the election

In what is clear disdain for the press and the concepts of accountability and transparency, the McCain campaign announced there would be no press conference with Sarah Palin before the election. Similar to the hard line they used during Palin's interviews at the UN, the press should boycot the McCain campaign until they agree to set press conferences with Palin on a regular interval. Their campaign needs coverage, and we need to hear the candidates answer questions and follow-ups.
Here's Andrew Sullivan's reaction:

It seems to me that in the absence of a real press conference, the networks and cable news networks should simply cease broadcasting her speeches live and demand of every Republican guest that they explain this descent into anti-democratic territory. Bush and Cheney despise the press and despise the constitutional balances that restrict their dictatorial impulses. They don't recognize the rule of law as an impediment to the exercise of their power and they don't acknowledge any democratic input, apart from a single "accountability moment" every four years. And now they want to prevent the public's ability through the press to ask the toughest questions and toughest follow-ups even during that one "accountability moment".

This is how Putin behaves. It is anti-American. It has never been tried in modern times before. It is a chilling attack on an open society and the accountability of its leaders to the people they serve. The press has a duty to stand up against it - and to care more about the process than its own precious reputation in the mouths of Hannity, Steyn, Palin and the rest of them.

McCain's Hero Petraeus: "I Do Think You Have To Talk To Enemies"

Did I say there was a lot of news today?
Greg Sargent reports on TPM Thursday:

So General Petraeus agrees with Barack Obama -- and not John McCain -- on the question of whether we should meet with hostile enemies?

In a case of comically awful timing, Petraeus yesterday gave a talk at the Heritage Foundation in which he more or less echoed Barack Obama's views on negotiating with hostile foreign leaders -- views that McCain has repeatedly subjected to criticism and ridicule.

Asked by a questioner specifically about the disagreement on this topic that McCain and Obama had at Tuesday night's debate, Petraeus demurred a bit, but said: "I do think you have to talk to enemies."

What Petraeus said isn't a perfect endorsement of Obama's views -- he didn't specifically discuss Iran, and the question of "no preconditions" didn't come up -- but it's pretty darn close.

That's because it's as clear as day that the context specifically was the debate between Obama and McCain on this topic on Tuesday night. During that exchange, the candidates clashed on whether to meet with the leaders of Iran, and the questioner at Heritage posed the subject about talking to enemies specifically in that light.

Listen for yourself - it's a short video - and completely clear on the subject. It mirrors Obama's approach exactly, one that McCain ridicules as 'dangerous'. McCain's argument blown by his biggest hero the day after the debate. How sad. McCain has nothing to campaign with anymore.

McCain in a Bear Market

George F. Will, our conservative stalwart comes out with another blast against the McCain campaign in his latest article. He opens with
Time was, the Baltimore Orioles' manager was Earl Weaver, a short, irascible, Napoleonic figure who, when cranky, as he frequently was, would shout at an umpire, "Are you going to get any better or is this it?" With, mercifully, only one debate to go, that is the question about John McCain's campaign.

In the closing days of his 10-year quest for the presidency, McCain finds it galling that Barack Obama is winning the first serious campaign he has ever run against a Republican. Before Tuesday night's uneventful event, gall was fueling what might be the McCain-Palin campaign's closing argument. It is less that Obama has bad ideas than that Obama is a bad person.
He goes on, calling Sarah Palin McCain's "Sancho Panza" and describes the McCain/Palin attempts to distract voters by focusing on Barack Obama associations as "like being savaged by a dead sheep"

It's clear that George Will has written off John McCain's campaign.
He's not the only one - the other end of the Republican Party (the populist, Rush Limbaugh side) is angry with him too. What remains is only whether he will take down the rest of the republican party with him.

Where do I start? Troopergate Marchs Forward

On this day when the stock market dropped another 675 points, there is so much in the news, it's hard to know where to start. I'm just going to hit some points in no particular order.

The Alaska Supreme Court declines to stop the 'Troopergate' investigation. Hopefully all those big Texas Republican lawyers can now get out of town and far away from the report that's scheduled to be released tomorrow. In a last ditch effort to suppress, there is pressure being put on the republicans on the legislature's committee to vote against releasing the results. If any of them have felt Palin's wrath, or seen others who have, hopefully they'll be smart and do everything they can to end her career while she's out of town. Since it's pretty clear that she's not going to to Washington, when she gets back to town, retribution will be a bitch otherwise (no lipstick required). Certainly, there are plenty of additional issues - mis-use of state funds, use of private email for government use with intent to subvert recordkeeping requirements, etc.

In predictable Palin-Republican style, she and the McCain campaign released her own 'investigation' and proclaimed herself 'Innocent' although it looks like Todd has admitted making calls and now the clain is that Sarah didn't know anything about it. That's gonna be hard to sell, since it's documented that Todd was working in her office all the time, at least when she was there.

Thursday, October 9, 2008

Rednecks for Obama

From Yahoo! News:

Tony Viessman, 74, and Les Spencer, 60, got politically active last year when it occurred to them there must be other lower income, rural, beer-drinking, gun-loving, NASCAR race enthusiasts fed up with business as usual in Washington.

Viessman had a red, white and blue "Rednecks for Obama" banner made, and began causing a stir in Missouri, which has emerged as a key battleground in the run-up to the November 4 presidential election.

"I didn't expect it would get as much steam and attention as it's gotten," Spencer told AFP on the campus of Washington University in Saint Louis, the state's biggest city and site of last week's vice-presidential debate.

"We believe in him. He's the best person for the job," Viessman, a former state trooper from Rolla, said of Obama, who met the pair briefly on that July day in Union, Missouri.

Rednecks4obama.com claims more than 800,000 online visits. In Denver, Colorado, Viessman and Spencer drew crowds at the Democratic convention, and at Washington University last Thursday they were two of the most popular senior citizens on campus.

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Quote of the Day -

John McCain gives his opinion on Negative Attack Ads

"I just have to rely on the good judgment of the voters not to buy into these negative attack ads. Sooner or later, people are going to figure out if all you run is negative attack ads you don't have much of a vision for the future or you're not ready to articulate it."
John McCain,[The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer, 2/21/2000]


Video of this quote is being used in a DNC ad released a few days ago.