Sarah Palin's Future

As Sarah Palin makes the rounds of the network interviews, it seems as if she can't stop talking. For all appearances, she seems out to prove that she can talk to the media, although from what I've seen, the McCain campaign wasn't wrong to limit those opportunities. I'm still waiting for something coherent or of substance to be uttered by the former Republican running mate, and I've had no indication that it will be forthcoming anytime soon. If she's trying to disprove the polls showing her negative approval ratings and lack of readiness to be president, this media onslaught is not going to help. It may make it worse. She might do well to remember that the those poll numbers got worse the more people were exposed to her, and Obama's campaign really had little to do with it.

If Sen. Ted Steven's lead holds through the inevitable recount, and his felony convictions appeals fail, he'll be expelled from the Senate, forcing a special election in Alaska to replace him. Perhaps that would be the cracked open door Sarah Palin was talking about in recent network interviews that she is looking for her God to show her. She says she will barge through even the slightest opening in a door, clearly indicating that she's interested in a 2012 or 16 race. She would have to resign her position as governor to run for the Senate seat, but would be setting herself up for a future national campaign.

It would also be a good escape from the Governor's office. Since the price of oil has dropped down to around $60, Alaska's budget may actually face a budget shortfall next year with the drastic drop in oil tax revenue. The huge surplus they ran last year, that Palin refunded to Alaskans this year, goes away next year if oil stays below about $70. All signs are that it would be good to NOT be governor of Alaska next year.

Since Palin took office, she bet heavy on the price of oil staying high to pay for the big tax cuts and cash payouts she is so popular for. It looked great short term, but her budget strategy of taxing oil to replace more traditional and stable sources of revenue made government revenue highly dependent on the price of oil, and that has been in rapid decline to less than 40% of it's peak this year. With the current global recession, America's move to diversified energy under Obama's energy plan, and the Alaska natural gas pipeline at least 20 years away, the horizon for Alaska's economic largess is near. They are in an economic crisis, but "the fundamentals of the economy are strong". All of Palin's "experience" may be found wanting.

If she did end up running for the senate seat (and it's not clear that she would even have that opportunity), she could likely be facing Mark Begich, mayor of Anchorage and Steven's current opponent (if he could afford another run). It would not be a cakewalk. The economic reality of Alaska's oil revenue dependence might have started to show up in the state budget, and Palin has not been able to organize a state level campaign organization while running for national office.

As governor, when that extra check won't come next year, the budget is in crisis, and the taxes that were cut are put back in place, her popularity will quickly sour. Funny how a budget surplus, boldly distributed directly to state residents, will become a political liability as her speculation with the state budget on the price of oil comes to light. Using that surplus to ensure stability in the state budget would have been a better choice. Her failure to hedge the state's risk on the volatility of it's revenue stream will cost her political capital.