We cannot risk having leaders in Washington who turn a blind eye to the
threat of climate change and the devastating impact it's having across
the nation.
It's time to act on climate change.
Showing posts with label Obama. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Obama. Show all posts
Sunday, November 4, 2012
Reflections - A reminder of where we've come from
We all tend to have a short memory about current events, and the advertising blitz of the current political campaigns makes it even harder to put our economic situation in perspective.
It is easy to be dissatisfied with the current state of the economy when we don't clearly remember just how close to a total financial collapse we were. In 2008, for Thanksgiving, 800,000 people lost their jobs. In the next month, for Christmas, 800,000 more people lost their jobs. Thousands of our troops were dying in Iraq and Afghanistan fighting two unfunded (and off budget) wars. The country was failing, the stock market was in a free fall, and a de-regulated Wall Street had lost Billions of dollars while defrauding investors with exotic derivative investments based on bad home loans. No one wanted to see or hear from President Bush, with good reason.
Four years later, not a single Republican candidate, even through the entire primary cycle, would dare mention the former President's name.
When I reflect back, I see just how much President Obama has accomplished, and knowing that there is far more to be done, I am proud of what he has done so far. Here's a video that will put it all together for you.
It is easy to be dissatisfied with the current state of the economy when we don't clearly remember just how close to a total financial collapse we were. In 2008, for Thanksgiving, 800,000 people lost their jobs. In the next month, for Christmas, 800,000 more people lost their jobs. Thousands of our troops were dying in Iraq and Afghanistan fighting two unfunded (and off budget) wars. The country was failing, the stock market was in a free fall, and a de-regulated Wall Street had lost Billions of dollars while defrauding investors with exotic derivative investments based on bad home loans. No one wanted to see or hear from President Bush, with good reason.
Four years later, not a single Republican candidate, even through the entire primary cycle, would dare mention the former President's name.
When I reflect back, I see just how much President Obama has accomplished, and knowing that there is far more to be done, I am proud of what he has done so far. Here's a video that will put it all together for you.
"Mr Romney has an economic plan that works only if you don’t believe most of what he says."
Said conservative publication "The Economist" in a balanced critical analysis of Obama and Romney. With it comes an Endorsement for Obama. Not a enthusiastic endorsement, but certainly a thoughtful rejection of Romney and of Obama being better for America (and Europe and the UK).
Recommended Reading - especially if you are still struggling with the choice over economic issues.
Recommended Reading - especially if you are still struggling with the choice over economic issues.
Friday, November 2, 2012
What would life be like with President Romney?
Obama ad outlining day 100 of a Romney Presidency. Don't let this happen !
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Presidential Debates - What's Not Said?
The third debate is over, and I got to thinking.. what is it about the debate format that I find so frustrating?
To me, in some ways, the debates are like reading the headline and maybe the 1st subtitle line of a newspaper article, but not having the opportunity to read the rest of it. It's not always what is said during the debate, it's what's not said; what's left on the table, that drives me nuts.
What wouldn't I give for a 'Fact Meter' (or rather a BS meter) that sets off a horn every time the Facts are left outside the hall.
Sometimes I wish I could hit 'Pause' on my remote, and take apart and have discussion and analysis on some of the statements in detail, instead of having to 'let them go' in the interest of time, or to move on to make some other point or NOT answer the next question.
Other than the American public's amazingly short memory; Here are just a few examples of what's driving me nuts about these debates, and the campaigns.
Romney is constantly harping on the size of the deficit under Obama's 1st term. What's not said? The bulk of the deficit spending is the result of the Bush tax cuts, two unfunded wars and an unfunded increase in the drug coverage for Medicare. When you look at the budget numbers under Bush and then Obama, what people forget is that they are comparing apples and oranges. The two unfunded wars were "Off Budget" under Bush. Obama included their cost in the budget, so the American people could understand and see what the financial costs of those wars were. A brave move, and certainly not the best for Obama's re-election campaign.
Romney is constantly attacking Obama's domestic record, over jobs, deficits, income levels, and how bad things are here after 4 years under Obama. What's not said? Obama inherited a financial system that was imploding. Before even taking office, the economy , both the stock market and the housing market, had fallen off a cliff. In perspective, Obama has come a long way in guiding the country through a recovery. Historically speaking, most economists agree that it takes 7 to 10 years to recover from the kind of financial crisis that our country went through. Considering that the country is recovering while fighting 2 wars, and facing not just a domestic financial crisis, but a global financial crisis, Obama has done remarkably well. I'm not sure why, but it seems that Obama just leaves this perspective sitting on the table unsaid. Perhaps it's because he's Presidential, and doesn't want to seem like he's shifting the blame or making excuses. Bull. The Public memory is notoriously short. They don't remember all the 'whys' and need to be reminded.
What else is Not Said? The Stock Market has recovered. If you left your money in your 401k, it's all come back. The TARP funds used for the Auto Industry bailout have ALL been paid back - WITH INTEREST.
The loans to Banks - same thing. In almost every case, the money has been paid back ahead of schedule and with interest. Best investment ever made.. and it saved a LOT of jobs.. not just those at GM and Chrysler, but in all the suppliers of parts as makers of raw materials as well.
Oh, and by the way Mitt, you can't drop the price of gasoline back to a buck a gallon, because oil is a global market, and the only way to prevent oil companies from selling oil overseas would be to impose huge tariffs, which completely violate your 'free market' concept. But you knew that (where's the BS meter?). The best way to reduce the cost of gasoline is to use less of it. Obama's mandate to improve fuel economy and incentives for alternate fuel vehicles are the best way to get the price back down.
Romney's move to the Center (actually, a bit left of center after this 3rd debate). Are you kidding me?
Please Please Please play clips from the Republican Primary debates! Most of the Neo-Cons and Tea Partiers are grumbling and feeling betrayed by the new 'Moderate Mitt'. What's NOT said? Most of them will vote for Romney because they are HATERS. They Hate Obama and will vote against him no matter who is running. Maybe we will all get lucky and they'll stay home out of disgust with their own candidate, or will vote for Huntsman. Could we only be so lucky.
Huntsman is Romney's Ralph Nader. He might just pull off enough votes to make a difference. Too bad he wasn't in the debates. He would have forced Romney to stay true to his supporters instead of pandering to undecided and women voters with his softball tone and Neo-Moderate views that are so opposite of his positions of only a couple of weeks ago.
Romney's tactics are too obvious, and that's being Not Said as well.
To me, in some ways, the debates are like reading the headline and maybe the 1st subtitle line of a newspaper article, but not having the opportunity to read the rest of it. It's not always what is said during the debate, it's what's not said; what's left on the table, that drives me nuts.
What wouldn't I give for a 'Fact Meter' (or rather a BS meter) that sets off a horn every time the Facts are left outside the hall.
Sometimes I wish I could hit 'Pause' on my remote, and take apart and have discussion and analysis on some of the statements in detail, instead of having to 'let them go' in the interest of time, or to move on to make some other point or NOT answer the next question.
Other than the American public's amazingly short memory; Here are just a few examples of what's driving me nuts about these debates, and the campaigns.
Romney is constantly harping on the size of the deficit under Obama's 1st term. What's not said? The bulk of the deficit spending is the result of the Bush tax cuts, two unfunded wars and an unfunded increase in the drug coverage for Medicare. When you look at the budget numbers under Bush and then Obama, what people forget is that they are comparing apples and oranges. The two unfunded wars were "Off Budget" under Bush. Obama included their cost in the budget, so the American people could understand and see what the financial costs of those wars were. A brave move, and certainly not the best for Obama's re-election campaign.
Romney is constantly attacking Obama's domestic record, over jobs, deficits, income levels, and how bad things are here after 4 years under Obama. What's not said? Obama inherited a financial system that was imploding. Before even taking office, the economy , both the stock market and the housing market, had fallen off a cliff. In perspective, Obama has come a long way in guiding the country through a recovery. Historically speaking, most economists agree that it takes 7 to 10 years to recover from the kind of financial crisis that our country went through. Considering that the country is recovering while fighting 2 wars, and facing not just a domestic financial crisis, but a global financial crisis, Obama has done remarkably well. I'm not sure why, but it seems that Obama just leaves this perspective sitting on the table unsaid. Perhaps it's because he's Presidential, and doesn't want to seem like he's shifting the blame or making excuses. Bull. The Public memory is notoriously short. They don't remember all the 'whys' and need to be reminded.
What else is Not Said? The Stock Market has recovered. If you left your money in your 401k, it's all come back. The TARP funds used for the Auto Industry bailout have ALL been paid back - WITH INTEREST.
The loans to Banks - same thing. In almost every case, the money has been paid back ahead of schedule and with interest. Best investment ever made.. and it saved a LOT of jobs.. not just those at GM and Chrysler, but in all the suppliers of parts as makers of raw materials as well.
Oh, and by the way Mitt, you can't drop the price of gasoline back to a buck a gallon, because oil is a global market, and the only way to prevent oil companies from selling oil overseas would be to impose huge tariffs, which completely violate your 'free market' concept. But you knew that (where's the BS meter?). The best way to reduce the cost of gasoline is to use less of it. Obama's mandate to improve fuel economy and incentives for alternate fuel vehicles are the best way to get the price back down.
Romney's move to the Center (actually, a bit left of center after this 3rd debate). Are you kidding me?
Please Please Please play clips from the Republican Primary debates! Most of the Neo-Cons and Tea Partiers are grumbling and feeling betrayed by the new 'Moderate Mitt'. What's NOT said? Most of them will vote for Romney because they are HATERS. They Hate Obama and will vote against him no matter who is running. Maybe we will all get lucky and they'll stay home out of disgust with their own candidate, or will vote for Huntsman. Could we only be so lucky.
Huntsman is Romney's Ralph Nader. He might just pull off enough votes to make a difference. Too bad he wasn't in the debates. He would have forced Romney to stay true to his supporters instead of pandering to undecided and women voters with his softball tone and Neo-Moderate views that are so opposite of his positions of only a couple of weeks ago.
Romney's tactics are too obvious, and that's being Not Said as well.
Romney on Education and Immigration
During Debate #2, during the segment on Immigration, Romney stated flatly that students graduating college should have a Visa 'stapled' to their diploma. He suggested, in effect, that we have an open door immigration policy to those non-Americans who graduate from our colleges and universities.
In Debate #3, Romney made note about the unemployment rate, and how terrible it was that half of the new college graduates couldn't find a job. Which way do you want it Governor? If you open the door and invite all those rich foreign students (and I say rich, because the have to have substantial money to come into the country to go to school) to stay and compete with American college graduates, you are going to make unemployment worse in this country, not better.
There's nothing wrong with opening the doors to our colleges and universities to foreign students, but Romney's position to offer them free access to our job markets, in direct competition with our own new graduates for jobs is shockingly bad.
Furthermore, it seems that Romney's only plan for Education in this country is his repeating over and over that he "Loves teachers". I think Bob Schieffer said it best when he said "I think we can all agree that we all love teachers". It's one thing to love teachers, but it's quite another to pay for them. Governor Romney's budget plans involve cutting domestic 'discretionary' spending. Since his math doesn't add up to pay for his tax cuts, and the discretionary domestic budget is already such a small part of the overall budget, you know that the 3rd thing to go (after PBS and Planned Parenthood) under a Romney plan will be Education funding. Goodbye Pell grants and student loan programs. You might love teachers, but apparently you don't want to help put students in front of them.
In Debate #3, Romney made note about the unemployment rate, and how terrible it was that half of the new college graduates couldn't find a job. Which way do you want it Governor? If you open the door and invite all those rich foreign students (and I say rich, because the have to have substantial money to come into the country to go to school) to stay and compete with American college graduates, you are going to make unemployment worse in this country, not better.
There's nothing wrong with opening the doors to our colleges and universities to foreign students, but Romney's position to offer them free access to our job markets, in direct competition with our own new graduates for jobs is shockingly bad.
Furthermore, it seems that Romney's only plan for Education in this country is his repeating over and over that he "Loves teachers". I think Bob Schieffer said it best when he said "I think we can all agree that we all love teachers". It's one thing to love teachers, but it's quite another to pay for them. Governor Romney's budget plans involve cutting domestic 'discretionary' spending. Since his math doesn't add up to pay for his tax cuts, and the discretionary domestic budget is already such a small part of the overall budget, you know that the 3rd thing to go (after PBS and Planned Parenthood) under a Romney plan will be Education funding. Goodbye Pell grants and student loan programs. You might love teachers, but apparently you don't want to help put students in front of them.
ROMNESIA
Wow, after tonight's debate, I understand what President Obama means by "Romnesia".
Governor Romney forgot that he's a Conservative. He sounded like a "Moderate".
Moderate is a dirty word in this era of Tea Party Republicans. Moderate Republicans have been chased out of Congress left and right by the right wing of the Republican Party, targeted by the Tea Party conservatives.
What happened to the Conservative Romney of the Primaries? Mitt sounded so 'dovish' on foreign policy that he made President Obama sound hawkish.
How does a candidate that touted being further to the right than his competition during the primaries end up to the left of the President in foreign policy?
Romesia.
Governor Romney forgot that he's a Conservative. He sounded like a "Moderate".
Moderate is a dirty word in this era of Tea Party Republicans. Moderate Republicans have been chased out of Congress left and right by the right wing of the Republican Party, targeted by the Tea Party conservatives.
What happened to the Conservative Romney of the Primaries? Mitt sounded so 'dovish' on foreign policy that he made President Obama sound hawkish.
How does a candidate that touted being further to the right than his competition during the primaries end up to the left of the President in foreign policy?
Romesia.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
The Obama Transition
It's been two weeks to the day, and Obama has been busy. Settled is his Chief of Staff, Rahm Emmanuel, and word has it that his Attorney General will be Eric Holder, the first African-American in that post. Holder was assistant AG under Clinton. Obama had also had discussions with Hillary Clinton, and Bill Richardson. Are the rumors about Hillary being nominated for Secretary of State a result of 'leaks' from the transition team to test the waters? He's even had time to sit down with John McCain, a meeting that must have been a bit awkward for them both.
The buzz on the inaugaration are that the demand for tickets is thousands of times higher than the available seats. Even if you are lucky enough to get a ticket (and who knows how our senators and representatives are going to handle the process), the chances of being able to get a flight, a hotel, and a place to sit (or even stand) are pretty small.
The buzz on the inaugaration are that the demand for tickets is thousands of times higher than the available seats. Even if you are lucky enough to get a ticket (and who knows how our senators and representatives are going to handle the process), the chances of being able to get a flight, a hotel, and a place to sit (or even stand) are pretty small.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Inspiration
Inspiration is the only word I could come up with to describe the overwhelming emotion when watching Obama's speech in Grant Park last night. It was beyond words. Seeing Jesse Jackson in tears watching in the crowd, history unfolding in front of him, you couldn't help but do the same. Nor could many others. I could only think how lucky I am to witness and be a part of this turning point in American history.
True to form, Obama made his moment about all of us. About all of his supporters, and all that supported McCain too. It was a call to service, a reminder that this is the beginning, not an end, and that history will judge us for what happens next, not for what has just transpired. The real work is coming, and it's time to think about what each of us can do to contribute in the new era that has just now begun to unfold.
There were disappointments too last night. Prop 8 passed in California, with 2 similar propositions passing in other states. It wasn't all bad. Connecticut voted down an attempt at a constitutional convention to reverse their gay marriage laws. New York now recognizes gay marriages from Massachusetts. Today's news is that the 1st lawsuits have been filed with the state supreme court here in California. To allow the majority to strip rights away from the minority by a simple majority vote through the initiative process is antithetical to the role of the judiciary in protecting minority rights. This use of the initiative process to strip away constitutional rights, if allowed to stand, sets a dangerous precedent and would destroy the foundational constitutional principle of equal protection. What would be next? The right to free speech? Could the majority use the same process to say, disallow dissent by minority groups or make it illegal to have an Islamic temple in our state, simply by a majority vote to change the constitution? Scary stuff.
In other news, Michigan became the 13th state to allow the medical use of Marijuana. Life isn't all bad! Hopefully, with the new era, federal arm twisting by the DEA will go away.
About the down-ticket races:
Dole lost. Her "Godless" Sunday school teacher (and democrat) opponent, Kay Hagen, put her in her place. Yes, Dole actually called her "Godless".
There are still Senate races out there in limbo today. There will be some recounts. Franken in Minnesota was within a couple of hundred votes. His incumbent Republican opponent declared victory anyway. In Georgia, Jim Martin (D) held the incumbent Saxby Chambliss (R) to only 49.9 %. to his 46.7 A third party candidate got the rest. This means that there will be a run-off election in 30 days. You need 50%+ to win in Georgia. Forces are gathering to wage this campaign. It's just starting there, and it's all about turnout during a run-off election. In Oregon, Jeff Merkley(D) and Gordon Smith(R) are even. Another recount, and also some issues there with ballots being damaged.
And, of course, there is Ted Stevens in Alaska. Convicted, and re-elected? It's anybody's guess as to what happened there. Beglich was ahead in the polls, but from the MudFlats blog in Alaska:
If for some reason the democrats sweep all these Senate races, they will get to the magic 60 if you include the two independents that caucus with the Dems. I have the feeling that Leiberman will get the boot from the Democratic Caucus unless they need him for this purpose.
It seems there will be no shortage of things to blog about over the next few weeks!
True to form, Obama made his moment about all of us. About all of his supporters, and all that supported McCain too. It was a call to service, a reminder that this is the beginning, not an end, and that history will judge us for what happens next, not for what has just transpired. The real work is coming, and it's time to think about what each of us can do to contribute in the new era that has just now begun to unfold.
There were disappointments too last night. Prop 8 passed in California, with 2 similar propositions passing in other states. It wasn't all bad. Connecticut voted down an attempt at a constitutional convention to reverse their gay marriage laws. New York now recognizes gay marriages from Massachusetts. Today's news is that the 1st lawsuits have been filed with the state supreme court here in California. To allow the majority to strip rights away from the minority by a simple majority vote through the initiative process is antithetical to the role of the judiciary in protecting minority rights. This use of the initiative process to strip away constitutional rights, if allowed to stand, sets a dangerous precedent and would destroy the foundational constitutional principle of equal protection. What would be next? The right to free speech? Could the majority use the same process to say, disallow dissent by minority groups or make it illegal to have an Islamic temple in our state, simply by a majority vote to change the constitution? Scary stuff.
In other news, Michigan became the 13th state to allow the medical use of Marijuana. Life isn't all bad! Hopefully, with the new era, federal arm twisting by the DEA will go away.
About the down-ticket races:
Dole lost. Her "Godless" Sunday school teacher (and democrat) opponent, Kay Hagen, put her in her place. Yes, Dole actually called her "Godless".
There are still Senate races out there in limbo today. There will be some recounts. Franken in Minnesota was within a couple of hundred votes. His incumbent Republican opponent declared victory anyway. In Georgia, Jim Martin (D) held the incumbent Saxby Chambliss (R) to only 49.9 %. to his 46.7 A third party candidate got the rest. This means that there will be a run-off election in 30 days. You need 50%+ to win in Georgia. Forces are gathering to wage this campaign. It's just starting there, and it's all about turnout during a run-off election. In Oregon, Jeff Merkley(D) and Gordon Smith(R) are even. Another recount, and also some issues there with ballots being damaged.
And, of course, there is Ted Stevens in Alaska. Convicted, and re-elected? It's anybody's guess as to what happened there. Beglich was ahead in the polls, but from the MudFlats blog in Alaska:
At last count with 99% of precincts reporting Begich trailed Stevens by only 4000 votes, 46.5% to 48%. But don’t write off Begich just yet. There are tens of thousands of votes yet to be counted - almost 50,000 in all. Absentee ballots have yet to be tallied, and more are arriving daily. In addition, any early votes that happened between last Thursday and Election Eve, are still to be counted. What does all this mean? We won’t know the outcome of this race for two weeks.Despite what the Pundits on TV say, Palin cannot appoint someone to fill the seat. That issue has been decided by the Alaska Supreme Court. There will be a special election if Stevens wins this one because he'll get expelled from the Senate when his appeal is lost, or he ends up in jail. More drama and bad headlines for Republicans. It would have been so much better if he had bowed out last week. One way or another he won't be seated. It's just a question of who will eventually get that post. Hopefully the Dem will just win, and Alaska can move on.
If for some reason the democrats sweep all these Senate races, they will get to the magic 60 if you include the two independents that caucus with the Dems. I have the feeling that Leiberman will get the boot from the Democratic Caucus unless they need him for this purpose.
It seems there will be no shortage of things to blog about over the next few weeks!
Monday, November 3, 2008
Election Eve
GO OUT AND VOTE !!!! Honor Mrs. Dunham and elect her grandson.
On the eve of this election I can't help but feel that this will be a historic event. For the 1st time, we have an African-American who not only is leading in the polls, but is leading with an outright majority nationwide. There is far more at stake, however. Here in California, there's Prop. 8 (please vote NO), which I will turn out large numbers of evangelicals. The LDS church is joining with evangelicals to fund the 'yes on 8' campaign. They have delved into politics, not something everyone in the LDS church agrees with, for what it's worth. There's Prop. 4 (please vote NO again), which chips away at a woman's right to privacy by eliminating that right for those under the age of 18. It doesn't outlaw abortion, but rather attacks the fundamental right which is the basis of Roe v. Wade. Since when are constitutional rights magically determined by age?
Sneaking in under the radar on what has been a massive presidential campaign, these Propositions are being funded by right-wing and right-to-life PACs from outside of California. In any other election year, there would be a large outcry.
Obama's rally tonight in Manassas, Virginia drew 90,000 people in a county where George Bush won with 69,000 votes in 2004. But that's just the dot on the I. He's been campaigning in states that were 'Red' and turning out record crowds. St. Louis 100,000, 3 rallies in western states that turned out 250,000. It's been that way all across the country, and been that way for weeks. It is the Obama Phenomena. Curious what a crowd of 90,000 looks like in the middle of the night? Here's a picture of part of the crowd posted by a blogger. As far as the eye can see and beyond.
Meanwhile, McCain and Palin are hitting midnight rallies in Nevada and Arizona tonight to crowds of hundreds. Crowds that fit into a high school gym. In Tampa, McCain started the day with a crowd of 1,000 when 10,000 were expected.
The Obama Phenomena is changing the Electoral map. States that haven't been in play for decades, are now 'toss up' or leaning Obama. Not only does that provide a multitude of ways for Obama to get to the needed 270, it's had a dramatic impact on the down-ticket races for Senate and Congressional seats. No one was thinking that we might get to 60 Democratic Senate seats even 6 weeks ago. If you believe the polls, that possibility is very real. Although still not likely, most pollsters get to that number by including "Independents" like Lieberman (what a jerk).
You've probably noticed that I've not been blogging on the polls lately. It's not that I'm not following them. On the contrary.. I watch these sites and read all the data I can.
RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight are two sites run by wonks that crunch numbers to excess. You can watch the campaign maps of CNN and MSNBC. You can look at Intrade Prediction Markets which would have you trade on the predictions like the stock market.
Here's my take on the polls. They show a steady Obama lead nationwide. The variance day-to-day of the tracking polls are all within the margins of error. There hasn't been any indication of a change in trend. Has it tightened up? Maybe. Not significantly. The national polls tend to not include votes for Nader and Barr.. some say that will be 2-3 %. Interestingly enough, most polls show that Nader and Barr overall will hurt McCain more than Obama. More important are the State-by-State numbers. This election is won State-by-State; something we don't have to tell Al Gore. In all of the toss-up states except perhaps North Carolina, Obama holds some kind of lead. Even there and Missouri, McCain's "lead" is less than 1 %. On the other hand, Georgia, North Dakota, Montana, and Arizona are now 'toss-up'; being within the margins of error.
Here's my problem with the polls. They don't reflect those tens of (or hundreds) of thousands of people that are showing up at the Obama rallies. Either voter turnout from these energized individuals will be the lowest in history or the polls are just not paying attention. The polls have their methods and they stick to them. I think they will learn a new lesson this year about how the dynamics of this election are not being reflected in their numbers.
Here's an example:
In GEORGIA- for all pollsters a 'red' state. Latest polls show McCain's lead down at about the margin of error, in some cases down to 1 point. However here's news that the pollsters didn't pick up. We see this reported at FiveThirtyEight.com today. They don't poll, they run simulations based on other people's polling data.
1,994,990 people voted early in Georgia. 3,301,875 total voted in Georgia's presidential race in 2004. That, with insanely long lines for early voters.
On the Road: Atlanta, Georgia details the 550, 000 new voters registered, the 33 offices, 175 staging areas, at least one in every county, and a highly organized and active volunteer organization.
In any case, far more people are voting early - 1/3 of all voters in Virginia voted early. So much for the last 72 hour 'push' by the campaigns.
I'm sure there will be plenty of analysis to listen to tomorrow.
I think there is going to be a big surprise. Obama is going to get results that the polls just don't measure.
In the mean time, there is this: Washington lost this weekend. Some say that means a Democratic win (football fans!).
Then there is this - Dixville Notch, NH polls opened at midnight and closed shortly thereafter. Obama wins 15 to 6 (votes!). It's the 1st result of the night, and not necessarily a good bell weather, however they haven't voted for a Democrat since Humphrey in 1968.
Find me blogging the news tomorrow. !!!
On the eve of this election I can't help but feel that this will be a historic event. For the 1st time, we have an African-American who not only is leading in the polls, but is leading with an outright majority nationwide. There is far more at stake, however. Here in California, there's Prop. 8 (please vote NO), which I will turn out large numbers of evangelicals. The LDS church is joining with evangelicals to fund the 'yes on 8' campaign. They have delved into politics, not something everyone in the LDS church agrees with, for what it's worth. There's Prop. 4 (please vote NO again), which chips away at a woman's right to privacy by eliminating that right for those under the age of 18. It doesn't outlaw abortion, but rather attacks the fundamental right which is the basis of Roe v. Wade. Since when are constitutional rights magically determined by age?
Sneaking in under the radar on what has been a massive presidential campaign, these Propositions are being funded by right-wing and right-to-life PACs from outside of California. In any other election year, there would be a large outcry.
Obama's rally tonight in Manassas, Virginia drew 90,000 people in a county where George Bush won with 69,000 votes in 2004. But that's just the dot on the I. He's been campaigning in states that were 'Red' and turning out record crowds. St. Louis 100,000, 3 rallies in western states that turned out 250,000. It's been that way all across the country, and been that way for weeks. It is the Obama Phenomena. Curious what a crowd of 90,000 looks like in the middle of the night? Here's a picture of part of the crowd posted by a blogger. As far as the eye can see and beyond.
Meanwhile, McCain and Palin are hitting midnight rallies in Nevada and Arizona tonight to crowds of hundreds. Crowds that fit into a high school gym. In Tampa, McCain started the day with a crowd of 1,000 when 10,000 were expected.
The Obama Phenomena is changing the Electoral map. States that haven't been in play for decades, are now 'toss up' or leaning Obama. Not only does that provide a multitude of ways for Obama to get to the needed 270, it's had a dramatic impact on the down-ticket races for Senate and Congressional seats. No one was thinking that we might get to 60 Democratic Senate seats even 6 weeks ago. If you believe the polls, that possibility is very real. Although still not likely, most pollsters get to that number by including "Independents" like Lieberman (what a jerk).
You've probably noticed that I've not been blogging on the polls lately. It's not that I'm not following them. On the contrary.. I watch these sites and read all the data I can.
RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight are two sites run by wonks that crunch numbers to excess. You can watch the campaign maps of CNN and MSNBC. You can look at Intrade Prediction Markets which would have you trade on the predictions like the stock market.
Here's my take on the polls. They show a steady Obama lead nationwide. The variance day-to-day of the tracking polls are all within the margins of error. There hasn't been any indication of a change in trend. Has it tightened up? Maybe. Not significantly. The national polls tend to not include votes for Nader and Barr.. some say that will be 2-3 %. Interestingly enough, most polls show that Nader and Barr overall will hurt McCain more than Obama. More important are the State-by-State numbers. This election is won State-by-State; something we don't have to tell Al Gore. In all of the toss-up states except perhaps North Carolina, Obama holds some kind of lead. Even there and Missouri, McCain's "lead" is less than 1 %. On the other hand, Georgia, North Dakota, Montana, and Arizona are now 'toss-up'; being within the margins of error.
Here's my problem with the polls. They don't reflect those tens of (or hundreds) of thousands of people that are showing up at the Obama rallies. Either voter turnout from these energized individuals will be the lowest in history or the polls are just not paying attention. The polls have their methods and they stick to them. I think they will learn a new lesson this year about how the dynamics of this election are not being reflected in their numbers.
Here's an example:
In GEORGIA- for all pollsters a 'red' state. Latest polls show McCain's lead down at about the margin of error, in some cases down to 1 point. However here's news that the pollsters didn't pick up. We see this reported at FiveThirtyEight.com today. They don't poll, they run simulations based on other people's polling data.
1,994,990 people voted early in Georgia. 3,301,875 total voted in Georgia's presidential race in 2004. That, with insanely long lines for early voters.
On the Road: Atlanta, Georgia details the 550, 000 new voters registered, the 33 offices, 175 staging areas, at least one in every county, and a highly organized and active volunteer organization.
The other problem I have with the polls is the early voting movement. No one knows how to account for the early voters, especially in the battleground states. It will be interesting to see if they are more influenced by the GOTV from the campaigns than the electorate in general. Many of these voters are VERY motivated; standing in line for hours. Why, I'm not sure. Perhaps it is from the fear of being disenfranchised as happened in some areas in 2004.Indeed, Obama is doing better with white voters in Georgia than either Kerry or Gore. In early voting, African-American voting was 35%. 25% is the historic level. As for totals after election day comes and goes, Adelman said, "anything over 30% and we're gonna win."
In any case, far more people are voting early - 1/3 of all voters in Virginia voted early. So much for the last 72 hour 'push' by the campaigns.
I'm sure there will be plenty of analysis to listen to tomorrow.
I think there is going to be a big surprise. Obama is going to get results that the polls just don't measure.
In the mean time, there is this: Washington lost this weekend. Some say that means a Democratic win (football fans!).
Then there is this - Dixville Notch, NH polls opened at midnight and closed shortly thereafter. Obama wins 15 to 6 (votes!). It's the 1st result of the night, and not necessarily a good bell weather, however they haven't voted for a Democrat since Humphrey in 1968.
Find me blogging the news tomorrow. !!!
Friday, October 31, 2008
30 Minutes in History
Barack Obama's 30 minute long form advertisement aired Wednesday night. It will go down in history as a masterful success. Millions watched it - Hopefully undecided and moderate Republicans that will now vote Obama. I think we'll see a bounce in the polls announced this weekend.
The last time something like this was done was Ross Perot and his now infamous 'flip chart' presentation. There was a lesson to be learned from that; and Obama's team learned it.
Never mind the content, Obama's choice of the team to conceive, produce and film this project says something about himself. He makes the right choices, and surrounds himself with the finest, most professional experts available. The award winning filmmaker who put this together is a perfectionist, and it shows.
And what about the content?
Obama sends a message of Hope and Unification mixed with personal stories of people that exemplify what is 'right' about America. He adds his personal narration, and stories from his own life, connecting with the listener. He makes the argument that he knows and cares about the average American by example, not in words. He moves smoothly from big concepts to specific policies, and back again. In this presentation, what comes through loud and clear is that he "gets it". "It's not about me, it's about all of you" he says from the campaign trail. No place is that clearer than in this video:
The last time something like this was done was Ross Perot and his now infamous 'flip chart' presentation. There was a lesson to be learned from that; and Obama's team learned it.
Never mind the content, Obama's choice of the team to conceive, produce and film this project says something about himself. He makes the right choices, and surrounds himself with the finest, most professional experts available. The award winning filmmaker who put this together is a perfectionist, and it shows.
And what about the content?
Obama sends a message of Hope and Unification mixed with personal stories of people that exemplify what is 'right' about America. He adds his personal narration, and stories from his own life, connecting with the listener. He makes the argument that he knows and cares about the average American by example, not in words. He moves smoothly from big concepts to specific policies, and back again. In this presentation, what comes through loud and clear is that he "gets it". "It's not about me, it's about all of you" he says from the campaign trail. No place is that clearer than in this video:
Sunday, October 26, 2008
News from Alaska - OBAMA !!!
Two news items today from Alaska.
1st - A rally in Anchorage turns out hundreds of people in freezing cold weather to create a human OBAMA logo. Dressing in red, white and blue ponchos, an enthusiastic crowd of Obama supporters turned out in this grassroots effort. Pictures in the link. Remember that there are only 600,000 people in all of Alaska, so turning out this size crowd with a grassroots organization says something! Here's another link from Alaska Daily News
2nd - The Alaska Daily News, the largest newspaper in Alaska has endorsed-- BARACK OBAMA !!! Read the story by following the link. It's a great endorsement - well thought out. Here's a snippit:
1st - A rally in Anchorage turns out hundreds of people in freezing cold weather to create a human OBAMA logo. Dressing in red, white and blue ponchos, an enthusiastic crowd of Obama supporters turned out in this grassroots effort. Pictures in the link. Remember that there are only 600,000 people in all of Alaska, so turning out this size crowd with a grassroots organization says something! Here's another link from Alaska Daily News
2nd - The Alaska Daily News, the largest newspaper in Alaska has endorsed-- BARACK OBAMA !!! Read the story by following the link. It's a great endorsement - well thought out. Here's a snippit:
It seems Alaskans are more clear-headed than the right side of the Republican party. The lack of support in Alaska might mean the idea of Palin 2012 that's being floated by some of the national media may not be viable. Of course, to be viable, it would require that she resonate with people outside of the right wing of the Republican party. So far, that doesn't seem to be happening - and with her negatives larger than her positives at this point, it's not likely to change.Gov. Palin's nomination clearly alters the landscape for Alaskans as we survey this race for the presidency -- but it does not overwhelm all other judgment. The election, after all is said and done, is not about Sarah Palin, and our sober view is that her running mate, Sen. John McCain, is the wrong choice for president at this critical time for our nation
Sen. Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee, brings far more promise to the office. In a time of grave economic crisis, he displays thoughtful analysis, enlists wise counsel and operates with a cool, steady hand. The same cannot be said of Sen. McCain.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
McCain's Latest Twist
Joe Biden opened a door at a Sunday fundraiser, stating:
What does any of it have to do with being tested? However brave his military exploits, it was all about following orders, not making international policy decisions or negotiating solutions. Thank you John for reminding us all that your military service does not equate to crisis decision making or foreign policy readiness. Thanks also for reminding us just how old you are.
If anything, this confirms how erratic McCain's campaign is. It's pulled him off onto a new tangent. I have to wonder if Biden's comments were intended to do just that.
"It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy. ... We're going to have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy."Now, not withstanding the fact that an international crisis has tested every recent new president within 6 months, John McCain jumped all over the comment as an opportunity to invoke the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 to incite fear and uncertainty about Obama's readiness to lead. He handled it like everything else he does that hasn't been carefully scripted in advance by his campaign team: He blew it. He said:
“We don’t want a president who invites testing from the world at a time when our economy is in crisis and Americans are already fighting in two wars,”Then, McCain veered off script to expound:
“Sen. Biden referred to how Jack Kennedy was tested in the Cuban Missile Crisis. My friends, I had a little personal experience in that,” McCain said. “I was on board the USS Enterprise. I sat in the cockpit of a flight deck on the USS Enterprise off of Cuba. I had a target. My friends, do you know how close we came to nuclear war? America will not have a president who needs to be tested. I’ve been tested my friends.”McCain was tested by sitting in a cockpit on an aircraft carrier? President Kennedy sure didn't call him on the radio to ask his advice on how to resolve the situation. Maybe if he was close enough to see Cuba on the horizon, he can claim, Palin style, that he's an expert on Cuban affairs.
What does any of it have to do with being tested? However brave his military exploits, it was all about following orders, not making international policy decisions or negotiating solutions. Thank you John for reminding us all that your military service does not equate to crisis decision making or foreign policy readiness. Thanks also for reminding us just how old you are.
If anything, this confirms how erratic McCain's campaign is. It's pulled him off onto a new tangent. I have to wonder if Biden's comments were intended to do just that.
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Colin Powell Endorses Barack Obama
Meet the Press was the forum for this important endorsement by a key Republican.
It was not only an endorsement, but a major critical assessment of both campaigns and both candidates. Powell was particularly critical of McCain's campaign, and the RNC. He highlighted McCain's erratic handling of the economic crisis, his pick of Palin, and use of Ayers as several examples of problems he has with McCain. He called Obama a 'transformational candidate' and cited his steady hand, his substance and his style and ability to inspire in his decision to endorse Obama. He had a lot critical to say about the republican party and campaign with it's narrowing and negative focus. Here's a clip from the show to watch.
It was not only an endorsement, but a major critical assessment of both campaigns and both candidates. Powell was particularly critical of McCain's campaign, and the RNC. He highlighted McCain's erratic handling of the economic crisis, his pick of Palin, and use of Ayers as several examples of problems he has with McCain. He called Obama a 'transformational candidate' and cited his steady hand, his substance and his style and ability to inspire in his decision to endorse Obama. He had a lot critical to say about the republican party and campaign with it's narrowing and negative focus. Here's a clip from the show to watch.
Friday, October 17, 2008
The American Promise
Watch the video, get inspired. With all the negative BS on the news, it's easy to forget the positive message of hope and inspiration that this man brings.
If you have time to help, use up your cell minutes this month and make some calls.
If you have time to help, use up your cell minutes this month and make some calls.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Debate number 3 - Monitoring the Independents
The CNN Independent focus group twists the dials for Barack Obama again for debate number 3.
The snap polls taken after the debate
McCain started the debate with 'angry angry angry' and looked that way. The split screen told the tale, looking old, angry, and at times contemptuous. None of those win votes, especially with Independent or undecided voters. Dial responses were muted.
On the other hand, Obama was 'cool and collected', and although a bit tense at the open, seemed to get more comfortable and more focused as the debate wore on. It might have seemed 'boring' to some, but the 'even hand on the tiller' of steady leadership can look that way. Net result - similar muted responses.
In contrast, it makes McCain look even more erratic and disjointed when unsuccessfully trying one attack angle after another to get Obama off course. McCain just seemed to get more angry, more frustrated, and at the end, tired. It seemed the focus group ended the same way; positive responses dropped off while McCain was still dragging out his responses.
McCain sounded hollow when complaining about the Obama's negative ads. It's an unbelievable charge. He's not in a position to whine while he's running 100% negative ads and Palin is stoking the hate mongers on the fringe. No one will believe that Obama is spending the most on negative ads, because he's only about 30% negative compared to the 100% negative of McCain. Every time someone sees an positive issue ad by Obama, they are now going to think ' Gee, McCain was wrong about Obama spending so much on negative ads'. This is definitely going to blow back on McCain, especially if he continues to run negative. Needless to say, you don't win votes with this line.
Obama missed the talking point on Ayers that he was voted Chicago Citizen of the Year in 1987, but responded well about the relationship. He told the story, explained the board, who else was on it, and who funded it - Ronald Reagan's friends the Annenburgs. - McCain hurt himself with outbursts. The diallers show they really aren't that interested. McCain follows up saying that he's not that interested in an old former terrorist, but it's about Obama's being forthcoming about the information. The problem was he said that after Obama just got done with a detailed explanation.
McCain is not believable about 'repudiating' all negative personal attacks. How can he say that when his running mate is busy making negative personal attacks? The dial shows people are not particularly impressed.
McCain has some problems with his arguments lately. When asked about Sarah Palin, he can no longer say 'reformer' without people thinking 'troopergate - abuse of power'. Flat Independent response from women until he touched on 'special needs kids'.. Men seemed to like that 'feisty' part of the 'reformer' word.
As the subjects turned to energy, Obama blew McCain out of the water. Especially when he talked about making high efficiency cars here in the US, not overseas, and working on new energy sources creating jobs in the US. McCain's drill-drill-drill just didn't resonate. The focus group is from Ohio. Job news is hurting this part of the country. McCain ties jobs to energy, but doesn't say how. Bringing up nuclear powered navy ships seems SO detached, McCain's just not relating to the focus group.
Moving on to Health Care, Obama got the twist to full + both with men and women. McCain's $5000 plan got Neg marks with women.. period! Men also dropped down to only slightly +.
McCain's mocking 'zero' response to Obama's statement about fines to small businesses didn't come off. It made him look like he didn't know Obama's plan. Obama continued with a strong response, detailing McCain's plan and it's faults. McCain is clearly out of it on this one. He didn't explain or counter Obama's arguments - he went back to Joe Plumber.. what? He goes off track then veers back. McCain then goes on to explain that his plan would give people $5000, but then would be taxed .. but the kicker is then he says the average health plan costs $5800.. hmm that seems like a $800 loss, and you then have to go out and find coverage for yourself... Good Luck... needless to say he got flat lined by the diallers on that. His arguments were not coherent at all. Obama's explanation of the McCain plan was far more understandable than McCain's attempt at explaining his own position. Probably convinced more than a few that they're better off without McCain's plan.
On the Supreme court issue - McCain came out and said he's for overturning Roe v. Wade. Called himself a Federalist - (stole that one from Palin!) He then got incoherent again.. no litmus test, but someone who's record supports Roe v. Wade would not be qualified .. huh? Talking out of both sides of his mouth. Obama refers back to supporting the Right to Privacy.. gets a strong uptick. Obama gives a strong empathy position - not 'Pro-Abortion'; support providing alternative solutions. Empathy was apparent; give women the choice, but encourage alternatives and prevent pregnancies to begin with. Very Centrist- and probably acceptable to some who lean pro-life, but are not hard line. Common ground approach mentioning sacred sexuality hits TOP marks, men and women! This line provides a way for people to support Obama from both sides of this issue and is reflected in the focus group response.
Obama hits again with Education. Teacher pay is very good point with the dialer twisters, but college hits the mark 100% + especially with women, but also with men. He does it again when he talks about better parenting -- 100% both men and women. Clear win on this one.
McCain harps on Vouchers.. his only answer. Troops returning to work as teachers without credentials gets a strong neg twist from women. Don't blame them... it's a STUPID idea. What qualifies a veteran to be able to teach without appropriate training? Makes NO sense. The visual of that ex-marine standing in front of a bunch of elementary school kids is pretty stark.
Obama comes out and blasts McCain's lack of help for college education, and uses his campaign's flippant response of not being able to accommodate a 'special interest'
Closing speeches were a mis-match. McCain starts, and gets only small responses. He doesn't have much to say. If anything, this should have been his shining moment. He should have been prepared to espouse all his strong points, but doesn't. He basically just asked for people to trust him. That's pretty tough with the sentiment running so negative these days, and some of his erratic answers. No big positives in response. Obama reviews his policy positions and relates them to the people. He gets a fairly strong positive response on the dials, and closes asking for peoples votes. (Don't forget to ask for their votes!!).
McCain set himself up as the angry attack underdog, but that set up a very negative tone. Response was muted. This is a very dangerous mode to go during a debate. If you are successful with the attacks, throwing your opponent off or getting them to change their game plan, and do it in a way that doesn't set a negative tone on your own message, you can win big. It's the kind of tactic that McCain needs because he needs to make a global shift in the campaign. Unfortunately for McCain, his tactic didn't work. He came across with a negative tone, did not throw Obama off his game plan, and didn't deliver a message of his own.
He ended up attacking Obama, but doing it on Obama's turf. That gives Obama control of the response and the debate. In order to work, he needed to attack Obama from his own turf. From his own strengths, he could have attacked without setting a negative tone on his own message.
The problem is that his own strengths aren't very strong. They don't bear critical analysis. They are also in areas that are not as important as they once were to the voters.
UPDATE - CNN snap poll data shows:
By 23 points, those polled said Obama was the stronger leader during the debate. By 48 points, they said Obama was more likeable. Independents went 57% to 31% for Obama as winning the debate. [Those are blow-away numbers. Clearly McCain's attack underdog persona hurt him]
CNN's Electoral College map now is at 277 Obama - more shifts, and some strong red states are now only 'lean McCain'. Interesting to see it change.
I expect a bounce for Obama in the battleground states out of this. I'm also waiting for the press to bring forward the William Timmons lobbyist issue, which mainstream news organizations haven't delivered on yet. Perhaps they were all waiting for the debates to be over. Obama doesn't need to raise this issue, but the press should still let people know about Timmons. He's an example of the worst of Washington insider politics.
The snap polls taken after the debate
McCain started the debate with 'angry angry angry' and looked that way. The split screen told the tale, looking old, angry, and at times contemptuous. None of those win votes, especially with Independent or undecided voters. Dial responses were muted.
On the other hand, Obama was 'cool and collected', and although a bit tense at the open, seemed to get more comfortable and more focused as the debate wore on. It might have seemed 'boring' to some, but the 'even hand on the tiller' of steady leadership can look that way. Net result - similar muted responses.
In contrast, it makes McCain look even more erratic and disjointed when unsuccessfully trying one attack angle after another to get Obama off course. McCain just seemed to get more angry, more frustrated, and at the end, tired. It seemed the focus group ended the same way; positive responses dropped off while McCain was still dragging out his responses.
McCain sounded hollow when complaining about the Obama's negative ads. It's an unbelievable charge. He's not in a position to whine while he's running 100% negative ads and Palin is stoking the hate mongers on the fringe. No one will believe that Obama is spending the most on negative ads, because he's only about 30% negative compared to the 100% negative of McCain. Every time someone sees an positive issue ad by Obama, they are now going to think ' Gee, McCain was wrong about Obama spending so much on negative ads'. This is definitely going to blow back on McCain, especially if he continues to run negative. Needless to say, you don't win votes with this line.
Obama missed the talking point on Ayers that he was voted Chicago Citizen of the Year in 1987, but responded well about the relationship. He told the story, explained the board, who else was on it, and who funded it - Ronald Reagan's friends the Annenburgs. - McCain hurt himself with outbursts. The diallers show they really aren't that interested. McCain follows up saying that he's not that interested in an old former terrorist, but it's about Obama's being forthcoming about the information. The problem was he said that after Obama just got done with a detailed explanation.
McCain is not believable about 'repudiating' all negative personal attacks. How can he say that when his running mate is busy making negative personal attacks? The dial shows people are not particularly impressed.
McCain has some problems with his arguments lately. When asked about Sarah Palin, he can no longer say 'reformer' without people thinking 'troopergate - abuse of power'. Flat Independent response from women until he touched on 'special needs kids'.. Men seemed to like that 'feisty' part of the 'reformer' word.
As the subjects turned to energy, Obama blew McCain out of the water. Especially when he talked about making high efficiency cars here in the US, not overseas, and working on new energy sources creating jobs in the US. McCain's drill-drill-drill just didn't resonate. The focus group is from Ohio. Job news is hurting this part of the country. McCain ties jobs to energy, but doesn't say how. Bringing up nuclear powered navy ships seems SO detached, McCain's just not relating to the focus group.
Moving on to Health Care, Obama got the twist to full + both with men and women. McCain's $5000 plan got Neg marks with women.. period! Men also dropped down to only slightly +.
McCain's mocking 'zero' response to Obama's statement about fines to small businesses didn't come off. It made him look like he didn't know Obama's plan. Obama continued with a strong response, detailing McCain's plan and it's faults. McCain is clearly out of it on this one. He didn't explain or counter Obama's arguments - he went back to Joe Plumber.. what? He goes off track then veers back. McCain then goes on to explain that his plan would give people $5000, but then would be taxed .. but the kicker is then he says the average health plan costs $5800.. hmm that seems like a $800 loss, and you then have to go out and find coverage for yourself... Good Luck... needless to say he got flat lined by the diallers on that. His arguments were not coherent at all. Obama's explanation of the McCain plan was far more understandable than McCain's attempt at explaining his own position. Probably convinced more than a few that they're better off without McCain's plan.
On the Supreme court issue - McCain came out and said he's for overturning Roe v. Wade. Called himself a Federalist - (stole that one from Palin!) He then got incoherent again.. no litmus test, but someone who's record supports Roe v. Wade would not be qualified .. huh? Talking out of both sides of his mouth. Obama refers back to supporting the Right to Privacy.. gets a strong uptick. Obama gives a strong empathy position - not 'Pro-Abortion'; support providing alternative solutions. Empathy was apparent; give women the choice, but encourage alternatives and prevent pregnancies to begin with. Very Centrist- and probably acceptable to some who lean pro-life, but are not hard line. Common ground approach mentioning sacred sexuality hits TOP marks, men and women! This line provides a way for people to support Obama from both sides of this issue and is reflected in the focus group response.
Obama hits again with Education. Teacher pay is very good point with the dialer twisters, but college hits the mark 100% + especially with women, but also with men. He does it again when he talks about better parenting -- 100% both men and women. Clear win on this one.
McCain harps on Vouchers.. his only answer. Troops returning to work as teachers without credentials gets a strong neg twist from women. Don't blame them... it's a STUPID idea. What qualifies a veteran to be able to teach without appropriate training? Makes NO sense. The visual of that ex-marine standing in front of a bunch of elementary school kids is pretty stark.
Obama comes out and blasts McCain's lack of help for college education, and uses his campaign's flippant response of not being able to accommodate a 'special interest'
Closing speeches were a mis-match. McCain starts, and gets only small responses. He doesn't have much to say. If anything, this should have been his shining moment. He should have been prepared to espouse all his strong points, but doesn't. He basically just asked for people to trust him. That's pretty tough with the sentiment running so negative these days, and some of his erratic answers. No big positives in response. Obama reviews his policy positions and relates them to the people. He gets a fairly strong positive response on the dials, and closes asking for peoples votes. (Don't forget to ask for their votes!!).
McCain set himself up as the angry attack underdog, but that set up a very negative tone. Response was muted. This is a very dangerous mode to go during a debate. If you are successful with the attacks, throwing your opponent off or getting them to change their game plan, and do it in a way that doesn't set a negative tone on your own message, you can win big. It's the kind of tactic that McCain needs because he needs to make a global shift in the campaign. Unfortunately for McCain, his tactic didn't work. He came across with a negative tone, did not throw Obama off his game plan, and didn't deliver a message of his own.
He ended up attacking Obama, but doing it on Obama's turf. That gives Obama control of the response and the debate. In order to work, he needed to attack Obama from his own turf. From his own strengths, he could have attacked without setting a negative tone on his own message.
The problem is that his own strengths aren't very strong. They don't bear critical analysis. They are also in areas that are not as important as they once were to the voters.
UPDATE - CNN snap poll data shows:
By 23 points, those polled said Obama was the stronger leader during the debate. By 48 points, they said Obama was more likeable. Independents went 57% to 31% for Obama as winning the debate. [Those are blow-away numbers. Clearly McCain's attack underdog persona hurt him]
CNN's Electoral College map now is at 277 Obama - more shifts, and some strong red states are now only 'lean McCain'. Interesting to see it change.
I expect a bounce for Obama in the battleground states out of this. I'm also waiting for the press to bring forward the William Timmons lobbyist issue, which mainstream news organizations haven't delivered on yet. Perhaps they were all waiting for the debates to be over. Obama doesn't need to raise this issue, but the press should still let people know about Timmons. He's an example of the worst of Washington insider politics.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Latest Q-Polls
These surveys of likely voters in Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan were conducted by Quinnipiac University in partnership with washingtonpost.com and The Wall Street Journal.
The polls reflect data collected Oct 8-12 (post debate)
Full survey results are available here
Key Findings Among Likely Voters
Presidential Preference
If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Colorado
McCain (R) 43%
Obama (D) 52%
Michigan
McCain (R) 38%
Obama (D) 54%
Minnesota
McCain (R) 40%
Obama (D) 51%
Wisconsin
McCain (R) 37%
Obama (D) 54%
The polls reflect data collected Oct 8-12 (post debate)
Full survey results are available here
Key Findings Among Likely Voters
Presidential Preference
If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Colorado
McCain (R) 43%
Obama (D) 52%
Michigan
McCain (R) 38%
Obama (D) 54%
Minnesota
McCain (R) 40%
Obama (D) 51%
Wisconsin
McCain (R) 37%
Obama (D) 54%
Friday, October 10, 2008
McCain's Hero Petraeus: "I Do Think You Have To Talk To Enemies"
Did I say there was a lot of news today?
Greg Sargent reports on TPM Thursday:
Greg Sargent reports on TPM Thursday:
Listen for yourself - it's a short video - and completely clear on the subject. It mirrors Obama's approach exactly, one that McCain ridicules as 'dangerous'. McCain's argument blown by his biggest hero the day after the debate. How sad. McCain has nothing to campaign with anymore.So General Petraeus agrees with Barack Obama -- and not John McCain -- on the question of whether we should meet with hostile enemies?
In a case of comically awful timing, Petraeus yesterday gave a talk at the Heritage Foundation in which he more or less echoed Barack Obama's views on negotiating with hostile foreign leaders -- views that McCain has repeatedly subjected to criticism and ridicule.
Asked by a questioner specifically about the disagreement on this topic that McCain and Obama had at Tuesday night's debate, Petraeus demurred a bit, but said: "I do think you have to talk to enemies."
What Petraeus said isn't a perfect endorsement of Obama's views -- he didn't specifically discuss Iran, and the question of "no preconditions" didn't come up -- but it's pretty darn close.
That's because it's as clear as day that the context specifically was the debate between Obama and McCain on this topic on Tuesday night. During that exchange, the candidates clashed on whether to meet with the leaders of Iran, and the questioner at Heritage posed the subject about talking to enemies specifically in that light.
McCain in a Bear Market
George F. Will, our conservative stalwart comes out with another blast against the McCain campaign in his latest article. He opens with
It's clear that George Will has written off John McCain's campaign.
He's not the only one - the other end of the Republican Party (the populist, Rush Limbaugh side) is angry with him too. What remains is only whether he will take down the rest of the republican party with him.
Time was, the Baltimore Orioles' manager was Earl Weaver, a short, irascible, Napoleonic figure who, when cranky, as he frequently was, would shout at an umpire, "Are you going to get any better or is this it?" With, mercifully, only one debate to go, that is the question about John McCain's campaign.He goes on, calling Sarah Palin McCain's "Sancho Panza" and describes the McCain/Palin attempts to distract voters by focusing on Barack Obama associations as "like being savaged by a dead sheep"
In the closing days of his 10-year quest for the presidency, McCain finds it galling that Barack Obama is winning the first serious campaign he has ever run against a Republican. Before Tuesday night's uneventful event, gall was fueling what might be the McCain-Palin campaign's closing argument. It is less that Obama has bad ideas than that Obama is a bad person.
It's clear that George Will has written off John McCain's campaign.
He's not the only one - the other end of the Republican Party (the populist, Rush Limbaugh side) is angry with him too. What remains is only whether he will take down the rest of the republican party with him.
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Rednecks for Obama
From Yahoo! News:
Tony Viessman, 74, and Les Spencer, 60, got politically active last year when it occurred to them there must be other lower income, rural, beer-drinking, gun-loving, NASCAR race enthusiasts fed up with business as usual in Washington.
Viessman had a red, white and blue "Rednecks for Obama" banner made, and began causing a stir in Missouri, which has emerged as a key battleground in the run-up to the November 4 presidential election.
"I didn't expect it would get as much steam and attention as it's gotten," Spencer told AFP on the campus of Washington University in Saint Louis, the state's biggest city and site of last week's vice-presidential debate.
"We believe in him. He's the best person for the job," Viessman, a former state trooper from Rolla, said of Obama, who met the pair briefly on that July day in Union, Missouri.
Rednecks4obama.com claims more than 800,000 online visits. In Denver, Colorado, Viessman and Spencer drew crowds at the Democratic convention, and at Washington University last Thursday they were two of the most popular senior citizens on campus.
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