Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Sarah Palin's Future
If Sen. Ted Steven's lead holds through the inevitable recount, and his felony convictions appeals fail, he'll be expelled from the Senate, forcing a special election in Alaska to replace him. Perhaps that would be the cracked open door Sarah Palin was talking about in recent network interviews that she is looking for her God to show her. She says she will barge through even the slightest opening in a door, clearly indicating that she's interested in a 2012 or 16 race. She would have to resign her position as governor to run for the Senate seat, but would be setting herself up for a future national campaign.
It would also be a good escape from the Governor's office. Since the price of oil has dropped down to around $60, Alaska's budget may actually face a budget shortfall next year with the drastic drop in oil tax revenue. The huge surplus they ran last year, that Palin refunded to Alaskans this year, goes away next year if oil stays below about $70. All signs are that it would be good to NOT be governor of Alaska next year.
Since Palin took office, she bet heavy on the price of oil staying high to pay for the big tax cuts and cash payouts she is so popular for. It looked great short term, but her budget strategy of taxing oil to replace more traditional and stable sources of revenue made government revenue highly dependent on the price of oil, and that has been in rapid decline to less than 40% of it's peak this year. With the current global recession, America's move to diversified energy under Obama's energy plan, and the Alaska natural gas pipeline at least 20 years away, the horizon for Alaska's economic largess is near. They are in an economic crisis, but "the fundamentals of the economy are strong". All of Palin's "experience" may be found wanting.
If she did end up running for the senate seat (and it's not clear that she would even have that opportunity), she could likely be facing Mark Begich, mayor of Anchorage and Steven's current opponent (if he could afford another run). It would not be a cakewalk. The economic reality of Alaska's oil revenue dependence might have started to show up in the state budget, and Palin has not been able to organize a state level campaign organization while running for national office.
As governor, when that extra check won't come next year, the budget is in crisis, and the taxes that were cut are put back in place, her popularity will quickly sour. Funny how a budget surplus, boldly distributed directly to state residents, will become a political liability as her speculation with the state budget on the price of oil comes to light. Using that surplus to ensure stability in the state budget would have been a better choice. Her failure to hedge the state's risk on the volatility of it's revenue stream will cost her political capital.
Monday, October 27, 2008
McCain Aides Comment on Palin
Quoting sources within the campaign:
"She is a diva. She takes no advice from anyone," this McCain adviser said. "She does not have any relationships of trust with any of us, her family or anyone else.
"Also, she is playing for her own future and sees herself as the next leader of the party. Remember: Divas trust only unto themselves, as they see themselves as the beginning and end of all wisdom."A Palin associate defended her, saying that she is "not good at process questions" and that her comments on Michigan and the robocalls were answers to process questions.
The Politico reported Saturday on Palin's frustration, specifically with McCain advisers Nicolle Wallace and Steve Schmidt. They helped decide to limit Palin's initial media contact to high-profile interviews with Charlie Gibson of ABC and Katie Couric of CBS, which all McCain sources admit were highly damaging.
In response, Wallace e-mailed CNN the same quote she gave the Politico: "If people want to throw me under the bus, my personal belief is that the most honorable thing to do is to lie there."
But two sources, one Palin associate and one McCain adviser, defended the decision to keep her media interaction limited after she was picked, both saying flatly that she was not ready and that the missteps could have been a lot worse. They insisted that she needed time to be briefed on national and international issues and on McCain's record.
"Her lack of fundamental understanding of some key issues was dramatic," said another McCain source with direct knowledge of the process to prepare Palin after she was picked. The source said it was probably the "hardest" to get her "up to speed than any candidate in history."
I'm thinking that Wallace and Schmidt wish they'd had another month to prepare her for those interviews. Her lack of "fundamental understanding" is still dramatic.
CNN contributor and Republican strategist Ed Rollins said Palin was "mishandled" during the earlier part of the campaign, and as a result, "she's become a target of a lot of ridicule."
But, he said, "She definitely is going to be the most popular Republican in this country when this thing is over."
I disagree with Rollins assessment that she was "mishandled". Wallace and Schmidt weren't given much to work with and did not have enough time to get the job done. I lay the blame on McCain's late decision, not on Wallace and Schmidt for this one.
To say she is the "most popular Republican" with polls showing Palin's unfavorables outweighing her favorables, is a pretty sad comment on the state of the Republican party.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Palin Denies Accepting $150K In Designer Clothes
If you thought that McCain's been living in a bubble when it comes to Sarah Palin it's nothing compared to the bubble surrounding Sarah Palin herself.
McCain was asked several questions on Thursday about the shopping spree _ and he answered each one more or less the same way: Palin needed clothes and they'll be donated to charity.ORMOND BEACH, FLA. (AP) - Sarah Palin is blaming gender bias for the controversy over $150,000 worth of designer clothes, hairstyling and accessories the Republican Party provided for her, a newspaper reported Thursday.
Palin, who is John McCain's vice presidential running mate, said the clothes were not worth $150,000 and were bought for the Republican National Convention. (What, does she think we can't add up the numbers reported by the RNC?).
Most of the clothes have never left the campaign plane, she told the newspaper. (what a waste- more clothes then she can even wear)
"It's kind of painful to be criticized for something when all the facts are not out there and are not reported," Palin said.
"That whole thing is just, bad!" she said. "Oh, if people only knew how frugal we are."(Frugal? - emphasis added- Yes, tell us again how frugal $23,500 for the convention speech outfit is)
I guess this means that if McCain and Palin win the election, all those clothes are going to be donated, and she'll have to start all over again. Maybe McCain subconsciously admitted that they're not going to win?"She needed clothes at the time. They'll be donated at end of this campaign. They'll be donated to charity," McCain told reporters on his campaign bus between Florida rallies.
Asked for details on how they'll be donated, McCain said, "It works by her getting some clothes when she was made the nominee of the party and it will be donated back to charity."
Asked if he was surprised at the amount spent, McCain said, "It works that the clothes will be donated to charity. Nothing surprises me."
I'm left wondering. Are those $5000 blazers and $1500 pumps are going to show up at a Salvation Army or Goodwill Industries store somewhere? Perhaps they'll have an auction, so that the party faithful can clamor over their spoils; donating the proceeds to the needy or homeless. Oh.. sorry.. that would turn Palin into a 'celebrity' - a 'dirty word' McCain used to attack Obama.
Well, maybe it's best we just leave the question unanswered too.
In any case, $150k at Neiman Marcus, Saks and Macy's is raising eyebrows, and questions.
Also on Thursday, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics, a private watchdog group in Washington, filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission against Palin, the Republican National Committee and several political operatives alleging that the purchase of clothing for Palin and her family violates Federal Election Campaign Act.
It raises another question for me. Who is paying for all those kids traveling around the country with Palin - and shouldn't they be in school? I don't recall McCain selecting the Palin FAMILY for the VP position. Is Palin paying their hotel and food costs (we know the clothes were paid for by the RNC)?
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Friday, October 10, 2008
No Press Conference for Palin before the election
Here's Andrew Sullivan's reaction:
It seems to me that in the absence of a real press conference, the networks and cable news networks should simply cease broadcasting her speeches live and demand of every Republican guest that they explain this descent into anti-democratic territory. Bush and Cheney despise the press and despise the constitutional balances that restrict their dictatorial impulses. They don't recognize the rule of law as an impediment to the exercise of their power and they don't acknowledge any democratic input, apart from a single "accountability moment" every four years. And now they want to prevent the public's ability through the press to ask the toughest questions and toughest follow-ups even during that one "accountability moment".
This is how Putin behaves. It is anti-American. It has never been tried in modern times before. It is a chilling attack on an open society and the accountability of its leaders to the people they serve. The press has a duty to stand up against it - and to care more about the process than its own precious reputation in the mouths of Hannity, Steyn, Palin and the rest of them.
McCain in a Bear Market
Time was, the Baltimore Orioles' manager was Earl Weaver, a short, irascible, Napoleonic figure who, when cranky, as he frequently was, would shout at an umpire, "Are you going to get any better or is this it?" With, mercifully, only one debate to go, that is the question about John McCain's campaign.He goes on, calling Sarah Palin McCain's "Sancho Panza" and describes the McCain/Palin attempts to distract voters by focusing on Barack Obama associations as "like being savaged by a dead sheep"
In the closing days of his 10-year quest for the presidency, McCain finds it galling that Barack Obama is winning the first serious campaign he has ever run against a Republican. Before Tuesday night's uneventful event, gall was fueling what might be the McCain-Palin campaign's closing argument. It is less that Obama has bad ideas than that Obama is a bad person.
It's clear that George Will has written off John McCain's campaign.
He's not the only one - the other end of the Republican Party (the populist, Rush Limbaugh side) is angry with him too. What remains is only whether he will take down the rest of the republican party with him.
Where do I start? Troopergate Marchs Forward
The Alaska Supreme Court declines to stop the 'Troopergate' investigation. Hopefully all those big Texas Republican lawyers can now get out of town and far away from the report that's scheduled to be released tomorrow. In a last ditch effort to suppress, there is pressure being put on the republicans on the legislature's committee to vote against releasing the results. If any of them have felt Palin's wrath, or seen others who have, hopefully they'll be smart and do everything they can to end her career while she's out of town. Since it's pretty clear that she's not going to to Washington, when she gets back to town, retribution will be a bitch otherwise (no lipstick required). Certainly, there are plenty of additional issues - mis-use of state funds, use of private email for government use with intent to subvert recordkeeping requirements, etc.
In predictable Palin-Republican style, she and the McCain campaign released her own 'investigation' and proclaimed herself 'Innocent' although it looks like Todd has admitted making calls and now the clain is that Sarah didn't know anything about it. That's gonna be hard to sell, since it's documented that Todd was working in her office all the time, at least when she was there.
Monday, October 6, 2008
Keating Economics - Responding to the Smear Campaign with FACTS
Launched today is the Keating Economics website. This is a comprehensive review of John McCain's involvement with the S&L bailout of the late 80's and early 90's. There is research and reference material along with a 13 minute video documentary. It's clear that he hasn't learned his lesson. McCain's campaign manager Rick Davis is/was a lobbyist for Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac. Taking a LOA while holding a ownership position in the lobbying firm is a joke. He did the same thing to head McCain's 2000 campaign only to return to his lobbyist ways immediately afterwards. Read about McCain's current ties, and Rick Davis on my previous post "The $2 Million Man" .
It's clear to me that McCain is desperate to turn the tide of the campaign. Obama is expanding his lead, especially among independents and women voters. McCain has nothing left to campaign on other than 'character' issues (code word for Race, Patriotism and Smear tactics). Sending his fuzzy bunny Sarah Palin out to sling the mud is probably a good idea. If the Obama campaign tries to combat her winks and folksy sarcasm, she can cry 'foul' and 'unfair' and 'sexist'. Besides, she can't say anything worthwhile anyway and we've heard all her talking points already.
Obama, on the other hand is playing hardball against McCain. His associations with the financial industry and clear track record of calling for Deregulation are FACTS. I just saw a bit of video from a public press conference in March of this year where he called for "deregulation and removing impediments to capitalization' in response to the housing market weakness. Now THAT is a FACT.
Hey Sarah Palin - another Musical Missive
Sunday, October 5, 2008
Brain to Nowhere
Friday, October 3, 2008
VP Debate - Talking Points vs Content
It was obvious that the plan was to answer questions when they fit into talking points that she had prepared for her stump speech, and when they didn't, answer with talking points from her stump speech anyway. She even admitted such when it was remarked early on that she didn't respond at all to the question asked. That was an obvious tactic for those who are not prepared. It was also obvious to some that she was referring to notes very frequently on her answers, frequently glancing down, sometimes appearing to be reading.
In some questions, the moderator did a very poor job, suggesting answers as part of her questions. She also did not press for answers to the questions asked, when Palin kept changing the topic and wasn't responsive. The only real break from McCain and Bush was on the subject of rights and recognition of same-sex couples. I'm sure there will be 'clarifications' on that response by first thing this morning.
The other major gaff was her statement in regard to the job of the VP. She states that she would like to expand the roll of the VP - in the legislative branch. Does she mean that she'd like to re-write the Constitution and 'run' the senate? That is NOT how the Senate runs, nor how the Constitution lays this job out.
Who is McClellan? The top general in Afghanistan is McKiernan. Since she was reading - what happened? Fact Check Please !! She didn't address any of the issues, or supply any answers to what McCain/Palin would actually DO. No Beef!
On the other hand, Biden was specific, answered the questions thoughtfully, and stayed away from any hint of sexism, or condescension. He hit some home runs connecting with women (at least from the CNN real-time focus group results) even more than with men. He came across as eminently qualified and a master of foreign policy. I particularly liked his response to Palin's sarcastic comment about looking at the past when he said 'prologue', when she tried to characterize it as irrelevant and unimportant. I also felt that his choke when talking about his family was real, a 'human' connection, but Palin ignored it, and she came off cold as a result.
Poll stats show Biden won this debate easily, and gained positive impression numbers for himself. Although Palin managed not to trip over ankle high bar; she also did not help McCain or her party win over any significant numbers of undecided voters. It seems that initial poll results show that undecideds are still moving steadily to Obama, and those leaning McCain are going more to neutral. Time will tell over the next few days whether her 'favorable numbers' go up. I expect they will, if only until the next segment that CBS releases of her Couric interview, or if she has to actually have a press conference where she has to answer questions.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Biden does a Great job. Palin's latest - Supreme Court, Church and State.
I'd like to say first what a great job Joe Biden did answering these questions. For a Catholic, stating his position on Roe v. Wade could be considered big news. Of course, the advantage of having all that experience is he's already weighed in on the matter multiple times.
He did a masterful job of responding in depth to the questions, the nature of our country and how this ruling related. He also continued to describe his support of the core principle behind the Roe decision of the 'right to privacy'. Bravo too for picking as a disagreement his "Violence against Women Act" which he tried to get through the Supreme Court. He certainly had plenty of choices. As to his answer on separation of Church and State, what a creative way of describing why this governing principle is so important to maintain. Very thoughtful and enlightening.
Well, on to the obvious, and latest Palin disaster:
Discussing why she opposes the Supreme Court Roe v. Wade decision, her primary answer was "it should be a states' issue". What? Her next sentence - and I'll quote it here says:
I'm, in that sense, a federalist, where I believe that states should have more say in the laws of their lands and individual areas.
What? A Federalist?
OK.. I am SO confused... So read the link on the word above and read all about it for yourself just to be sure you know all that it implies! This is the TRUE disaster of this interview... regardless of your agreement on her position on Roe or anything else.
First off, to oppose Roe based on states rights isn't a credible argument. Then in the very next sentence to say you are a Federalist, is saying exactly the opposite. Federalists believe in a strong central government, and care little about states rights. She's clearly got this exactly backwards.. a 'states rights' proponent claiming to be 'Federalist' - come ON !!
Well, Ms. fuzzball Katie Couric doesn't challenge her on this, but moves on to the next part of the question, and asks her about if she believes in a 'Right to Privacy' being inherent in the Constitution. I suppose if she had answered the Roe question on ideological terms, this would be an important follow-up. Surprisingly, she answers that she DOES support the 'Right to Privacy' which is the cornerstone of the Roe decision (which Ms. Couric dutifully reminds her, and us), and then goes on to expound again how she feels it should be a 'states' issue, not federal! It sure doesn't sound very 'Federalist' to me!! I think Ms. Couric was in shock by this point.
I'm wondering what McCain and the rest of the Republican Party have to say about their 'Federalist - States Rights' candidate much less the right side of the Party - those who support constitutional amendments to ban Gay marriage and outlaw abortion. Watching the Conservatives scramble will be fun these next few days. They have been running away from this candidate as fast as they can.
Keeping up the pace, Ms. Couric moves on again, and asks what other decisions that Gov. Palin disagrees with the Court about. She couldn't come up with a single thing... not ONE! Even the Court's decision to overturn the Exxon-Valdez multi-billion dollar jury award, and reduce it to $500 million - something she spoke out against at the time!
Of course, not to let us down on the Separation of Church and State issue, Palin trys to quote Thomas Jefferson - but says 'never underestimate the wisdom of the people' - which I can't find as a Jefferson quote anywhere - (and so far no one else I know of either, paraphrased or otherwise). What's worse, is that she does this after claiming to be a "Federalist", which party Jefferson defeated in 1800. She said "government did not mandate a religion on people". In the strict one phrase response to the 'wall between Church and State' that answer is accurate, in an elementary school approach to American History. Separation of Church and State goes far beyond that. It means, especially in regards to Jeffersonian politics, that the Church should not be a part of Government and politics. It was a principle argument in the election of 1800, so is quite appropriate to bring into the conversation. Palin fails, however to say anything else, so fills the time with meaningless babble about 'wisdom of the people' whatever that means.
I have two Jefferson quotes to share - that have been part of my email signature block for a long time now. In an open attempt to provide an accurate quote for Gov. Palin to use next time, I'm including them here:
"The presumption of dictating to an independent nation the form of its government is so arrogant, so atrocious, that indignation as well as moral sentiment enlists all our partialities and prayers in favor of one and our equal execrations against the other. I do not know, indeed, whether all nations do not owe to one another a bold and open declaration of their sympathies with the one party and their detestation of the conduct of the other. But farther than this we are not bound to go; and, indeed, for the sake of the world, we ought not to increase the jealousies or draw on ourselves the power of [a] formidable confederacy." --Thomas Jefferson to James Monroe, 1823. ME 15:435
"Nor is the occasion to be slighted... of declaring our protest against the atrocious violations of the rights of nations by the interference of any one in the internal affairs of another." --Thomas Jefferson to James Monroe, 1823. ME 15:478
Here are the videos - from CBS News - It's ABOUT TIME YOU PUBLISHED THESE!!!!!!!
1st - Supreme Court - Roe v. Wade
And the 2nd one - Church and State
Happy New Year folks -
Saturday, September 27, 2008
CNN Election Tracker shows Obama gains in EC map
Click this link for the Election Tracker map. Notice that this map shows the latest polling data, all prior to the debate, in the swing states - if you mouse over the CNN symbol of a swing state - it will provide the data. On this map, light blue is still 'even-within margin of error'. Notice that Wisconsin is DARK blue - called for Obama. Also notice that the data for Minnesota and New Hampshire are favoring Obama, but are not called for him yet, however the leads are right at the 'margin of error' for the polls. WI, MN and NH total 24 electoral votes.
Now notice the CNN Electoral College map linked from their main politics page. This is the interactive 'calculator' map that allows you to change states and see what happens to the EC count. With CNN's estimate they show Obama at 240, McCain at 200.
Notice that this map does NOT have WI for Obama, and shows MO and NC as leaning McCain, even though the Tracker maps shows them as 'even - within margin of error'.
It appears that they have not updated the 'Calculator' map linked from their leading 'Politics' page with the latest data from the Election Tracker. If you update the map with the WI, MN and NH, Obama moves up to 264 EC votes - 6 votes shy of the 270 required. MO and NC should be moved back into the 'toss-up' pile, as they are both within 1 pt, and the data is 2 weeks old. This leaves McCain with 176 EC votes, and 100 in the toss-up group.
This shows a VERY different picture of the EC vote status - 264 Obama to 176 McCain with 100 still in the 'toss-up' states. Keep in mind that this data is all PRIOR to the Debate. New post-debate polling data will move things around a bit. If Obama gets a bounce in Ohio or any of the other swing states, which judging from the debate viewer polls , he will, and with his current momentum, the Election Tracker map should start to show Obama polling over the top with the next poll results update.
This is especially true if Palin does not get a huge bounce out of the VP debate. Somehow, based on her press interviews, I don't think that will be likely, unless it's a sympathy bounce because somehow it's 'unfair' or 'sexist' to expect her to answer the same questions as Biden. It's really just another press interview, since they won't be addressing each other based on the 'special rules' for this debate session. Most people don't know Joe Biden, although he has a long record in the Senate. They will learn that he is a very capable, eloquent speaker, and knowledgeable on the issues and the record. Palin has a problem putting together a coherent grammatically correct sentence if she's not repeating a memorized talking point. The best thing she could do is find a reason not to be there on Thursday. The best thing Biden can do is to let her hang herself and stay as far away from the self-destruct as possible, to avoid any 'blame' from the Republican spin doctors.
My only other expectation is that CNN will be slow to update their maps, because of the debacle of the last election, where they missed their predictions by small but important margins.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Palin on Russian Foreign Policy
She has experience, because Alaska is close to Russia.. and has a border with Canada. Not that she's been involved with any negotiations with either...
Remember, this person could be the Vice-President, or even President at some time in the future if by some strange twist, McCain gets elected.
Watch CBS Videos Online
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
McCain stalls - to buy time for himself and Palin
On the surface, it seems like he's taking the 'high' road. But the reality is that it is a thinly veiled attempt at using this current crisis to avoid another one - the Debates.
As usual, the devil is in the details. He actually suggested that the VP debate be postponed, to a date To Be Determined and that the Presidential Debate be moved into that slot.
What's the matter John, afraid that Sarah Palin can't handle the debate? She says she's ready 'day one' to take the reigns, so why not simply suggest that Gov. Palin debate Sen. Biden this Friday and just swap timeslots?
Nobody needs him in Washington - there are plenty of people already on the Banking Committee that have been working since last Friday on this. Another voice, one that is looking to take credit where credit isn't due for political rating points is the last thing that Congress needs to deal with.
The potential to disrupt the process at this point far exceeds any additional input that would be garnered from someone George F. Will (that's right - the Conservative himself) called "Childish" and whose words he characterized as "fact-free slander"
Palin - Troopergate explanation falls apart, Mr. Hockey Mom?
By the way, he was going in order to raise money to fight sexual violence. I guess Palin doesn't believe in supporting that effort any more than paying for forensic Rape Kits used to collect evidence from rape victims. They had to pass a state law banning the practice she put in place in Wasilla of making the victim pay for the kit.
CNN reports that Republican campaign officials indicated they are done answering questions about an investigation into Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's firing of her public safety commissioner Tuesday. Palin has dropped an earlier pledge to cooperate with a probe by the state Legislature.
Here's another video from Rachel Maddow. Starting mid-way is an interview with Lyda Green, President of the Alaska state Senate, and a Republican who represents Wasilla.
Sometimes I just love quoting Republicans.
Monday, September 22, 2008
Palin - Yes, Thanks, to a Road to Nowhere
When you build a bridge, what else do you need to build? A road to the bridge! Congress might have rescinded it's earmark to the 'Bridge to Nowhere', and then Gov. Palin killed the project, but that is not the end of the story.
Construction of a 3.2 mile $26 Million road from the Gravina Airport (pop. 50) to the beach where the infamous bridge was to be built has continued to move forward. This highway, that no one will drive, dead ends near where the bridge would have been built.
"Surely we won't have to commute on the highway if there won't be a bridge," said Jill Jacob, who has been writing and calling the governor's office for the last two years to protest the road. "It's a dead-end highway, a dead-end road."
Read the full story in the LA Times Article
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Alaskan Women Reject Palin Rally
Alaskan Women Reject Palin Rally
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
A Republican's perspective
Friday, September 5, 2008
Political Events of the Day ~
The intent is clear, to the Republican campaign, the Issues don't matter, it's all about personality and political rhetoric. This entire week of RNC speech making has been devoid of specific discussion of the issues. What little McCain said about the issues, was met with considerably less enthusiasm.
Palin is just another pawn in the process. It's a clever choice. She has a strong, yet attractive personality, and will appeal to those for whom the Issues are beyond understanding. There is that block of voters in this country that are proven to vote based on "who they like". "Likeability", in a close race, can be enough to shift the balance, especially in some of the swing states where this battle will really be won or lost.
Democrats must be careful to not lose the "likeability" contest by getting sucked into this political trap. Instead, they must continue to explain in simple straightforward ways, the critical choice that voters must make in November, and how that vote will directly affect their lives and the direction this country will take. They must also do it in an uplifting, creative and engaging way, so as to appeal to those who don't really listen or study the facts, but rather decide based on what they "Like" about the candidate.
This Cartoon was sent along in an email I got today.
Hope you enjoy it -!!
