The Election Isn't Over Till It's Over

What you say?
Yes, the electoral college is yet to vote, and elections are yet to be certified. But we all know the outcome right? Let's look at Missouri.

The race has tightened over the last week. McCain now leads by less than 5,000 votes out of something close to 3 million. There are some 7,000 provisional ballots yet to be counted. 3,200 votes were recently 'found' in the electronic voting machines when it was discovered that they weren't tallied properly by poll workers. Until the election is certified in a couple of weeks, no one can request a recount. Why a recount? What's at stake? Missouri's bellwether status!

More important undecided races (unless your from Missouri of course) are Senate races. In Michigan, there are about 200 votes out of almost 3 million deciding the race between Franken(D) and Coleman(R). The lawyers are now wrangling over the recount process ala Florida 2000. In Georgia, the race is starting all over, with Chambliss(R) getting only 49.8% in a state where a plurality is required to win. It looks like every Republican presidential candidate from the primaries will be down there campaigning - McCain, Huckabee, Guliani and Romney are all slated to hit the campaign trail. Obama is sending aids from his campaign staff to assist Jim Martin (D) in getting all those people who voted for Obama to turn out again for this new battle. Too bad they didn't all vote for Martin to begin with. It seem there were a lot of ballots cast for Obama that didn't vote the rest of the ticket.

Of course, there is still the pending election in Alaska, where recently convicted felon and incumbent Ted Stevens is still leading by a few thousand votes. There are over 90,000 votes yet to be counted (mostly absentee ballots), half of which should be counted by this weekend. His opponent, Mark Begich will probably benefit from the absentee and early voter counts that are going on now. Of course, if things tighten up, there will probably be a call for a recount, and more lawyers arguing and deadlines for election certification looming. In any case, South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint (R) is calling for a vote next week to eject Stevens from the Republican caucus. While not exactly expulsion from the senate (the GOP wants to wait until his appeals process is complete), it would remove him from any committees and any Republican only decision making process. At least one conservative Senator has some integrity left.

A lot of pundits are questioning the turnout and results in Alaska. I'm sure that many questions will be asked more aggressively if a recount gets underway. Alaska is the only state that pollsters got COMPLETELY wrong. Turnout was lower than 2004, even with historically large turnouts for caucuses earlier in the campaign season. No one expected such a low turnout. Pollers expected Stevens to lose by double digits.

Personally, I think that the major media projecting the Obama victory as early as 3pm Alaska time might has suppressed a lot of the turnout. None of the media pundits are giving that much weight, but I do remember how loudly people here in California complained when they called elections before the polls closed. They didn't call the election, but it was everything BUT that, and anyone who listened or watched knew it. So, how should the media be responsible? Should they not project results until polls are closed everywhere? Is that realistic? Tough questions. Perhaps they should run a poll in Alaska and actually find out why people didn't vote.

Why does all this matter? Politically, it matters because the Senate is close to a filibuster proof majority. More importantly, it's about the integrity of the election process in general. There is still a lot of suspicion surrounding the voting process and voter suppression tactics that we've seen in 2000 and 2004.

Elections like the Michigan senate race highlight the need to have certainty not only in the result, but also in the process by which that result is achieved, down to the individual ballot. Quite the task, and I'm not sure that the systems we have are completely up to it.

Watch the process closely. It will tell us a lot about what progress has been made. In Michigan, expect that every absentee ballot that was rejected will be challenged, and probably any recounts that vary or ballots that don't scan. At least there are no hanging chads in Michigan, but optical ballots have those little boxes to fill in, so be prepared!

Inspiration

Inspiration is the only word I could come up with to describe the overwhelming emotion when watching Obama's speech in Grant Park last night. It was beyond words. Seeing Jesse Jackson in tears watching in the crowd, history unfolding in front of him, you couldn't help but do the same. Nor could many others. I could only think how lucky I am to witness and be a part of this turning point in American history.

True to form, Obama made his moment about all of us. About all of his supporters, and all that supported McCain too. It was a call to service, a reminder that this is the beginning, not an end, and that history will judge us for what happens next, not for what has just transpired. The real work is coming, and it's time to think about what each of us can do to contribute in the new era that has just now begun to unfold.

There were disappointments too last night. Prop 8 passed in California, with 2 similar propositions passing in other states. It wasn't all bad. Connecticut voted down an attempt at a constitutional convention to reverse their gay marriage laws. New York now recognizes gay marriages from Massachusetts. Today's news is that the 1st lawsuits have been filed with the state supreme court here in California. To allow the majority to strip rights away from the minority by a simple majority vote through the initiative process is antithetical to the role of the judiciary in protecting minority rights. This use of the initiative process to strip away constitutional rights, if allowed to stand, sets a dangerous precedent and would destroy the foundational constitutional principle of equal protection. What would be next? The right to free speech? Could the majority use the same process to say, disallow dissent by minority groups or make it illegal to have an Islamic temple in our state, simply by a majority vote to change the constitution? Scary stuff.

In other news, Michigan became the 13th state to allow the medical use of Marijuana. Life isn't all bad! Hopefully, with the new era, federal arm twisting by the DEA will go away.

About the down-ticket races:

Dole lost. Her "Godless" Sunday school teacher (and democrat) opponent, Kay Hagen, put her in her place. Yes, Dole actually called her "Godless".

There are still Senate races out there in limbo today. There will be some recounts. Franken in Minnesota was within a couple of hundred votes. His incumbent Republican opponent declared victory anyway. In Georgia, Jim Martin (D) held the incumbent Saxby Chambliss (R) to only 49.9 %. to his 46.7 A third party candidate got the rest. This means that there will be a run-off election in 30 days. You need 50%+ to win in Georgia. Forces are gathering to wage this campaign. It's just starting there, and it's all about turnout during a run-off election. In Oregon, Jeff Merkley(D) and Gordon Smith(R) are even. Another recount, and also some issues there with ballots being damaged.

And, of course, there is Ted Stevens in Alaska. Convicted, and re-elected? It's anybody's guess as to what happened there. Beglich was ahead in the polls, but from the MudFlats blog in Alaska:

At last count with 99% of precincts reporting Begich trailed Stevens by only 4000 votes, 46.5% to 48%. But don’t write off Begich just yet. There are tens of thousands of votes yet to be counted - almost 50,000 in all. Absentee ballots have yet to be tallied, and more are arriving daily. In addition, any early votes that happened between last Thursday and Election Eve, are still to be counted. What does all this mean? We won’t know the outcome of this race for two weeks.

Despite what the Pundits on TV say, Palin cannot appoint someone to fill the seat. That issue has been decided by the Alaska Supreme Court. There will be a special election if Stevens wins this one because he'll get expelled from the Senate when his appeal is lost, or he ends up in jail. More drama and bad headlines for Republicans. It would have been so much better if he had bowed out last week. One way or another he won't be seated. It's just a question of who will eventually get that post. Hopefully the Dem will just win, and Alaska can move on.

If for some reason the democrats sweep all these Senate races, they will get to the magic 60 if you include the two independents that caucus with the Dems. I have the feeling that Leiberman will get the boot from the Democratic Caucus unless they need him for this purpose.

It seems there will be no shortage of things to blog about over the next few weeks!