Debate number 3 - Monitoring the Independents

The CNN Independent focus group twists the dials for Barack Obama again for debate number 3.
The snap polls taken after the debate

McCain started the debate with 'angry angry angry' and looked that way. The split screen told the tale, looking old, angry, and at times contemptuous. None of those win votes, especially with Independent or undecided voters. Dial responses were muted.

On the other hand, Obama was 'cool and collected', and although a bit tense at the open, seemed to get more comfortable and more focused as the debate wore on. It might have seemed 'boring' to some, but the 'even hand on the tiller' of steady leadership can look that way. Net result - similar muted responses.

In contrast, it makes McCain look even more erratic and disjointed when unsuccessfully trying one attack angle after another to get Obama off course. McCain just seemed to get more angry, more frustrated, and at the end, tired. It seemed the focus group ended the same way; positive responses dropped off while McCain was still dragging out his responses.

McCain sounded hollow when complaining about the Obama's negative ads. It's an unbelievable charge. He's not in a position to whine while he's running 100% negative ads and Palin is stoking the hate mongers on the fringe. No one will believe that Obama is spending the most on negative ads, because he's only about 30% negative compared to the 100% negative of McCain. Every time someone sees an positive issue ad by Obama, they are now going to think ' Gee, McCain was wrong about Obama spending so much on negative ads'. This is definitely going to blow back on McCain, especially if he continues to run negative. Needless to say, you don't win votes with this line.

Obama missed the talking point on Ayers that he was voted Chicago Citizen of the Year in 1987, but responded well about the relationship. He told the story, explained the board, who else was on it, and who funded it - Ronald Reagan's friends the Annenburgs. - McCain hurt himself with outbursts. The diallers show they really aren't that interested. McCain follows up saying that he's not that interested in an old former terrorist, but it's about Obama's being forthcoming about the information. The problem was he said that after Obama just got done with a detailed explanation.

McCain is not believable about 'repudiating' all negative personal attacks. How can he say that when his running mate is busy making negative personal attacks? The dial shows people are not particularly impressed.

McCain has some problems with his arguments lately. When asked about Sarah Palin, he can no longer say 'reformer' without people thinking 'troopergate - abuse of power'. Flat Independent response from women until he touched on 'special needs kids'.. Men seemed to like that 'feisty' part of the 'reformer' word.

As the subjects turned to energy, Obama blew McCain out of the water. Especially when he talked about making high efficiency cars here in the US, not overseas, and working on new energy sources creating jobs in the US. McCain's drill-drill-drill just didn't resonate. The focus group is from Ohio. Job news is hurting this part of the country. McCain ties jobs to energy, but doesn't say how. Bringing up nuclear powered navy ships seems SO detached, McCain's just not relating to the focus group.

Moving on to Health Care, Obama got the twist to full + both with men and women. McCain's $5000 plan got Neg marks with women.. period! Men also dropped down to only slightly +.
McCain's mocking 'zero' response to Obama's statement about fines to small businesses didn't come off. It made him look like he didn't know Obama's plan. Obama continued with a strong response, detailing McCain's plan and it's faults. McCain is clearly out of it on this one. He didn't explain or counter Obama's arguments - he went back to Joe Plumber.. what? He goes off track then veers back. McCain then goes on to explain that his plan would give people $5000, but then would be taxed .. but the kicker is then he says the average health plan costs $5800.. hmm that seems like a $800 loss, and you then have to go out and find coverage for yourself... Good Luck... needless to say he got flat lined by the diallers on that. His arguments were not coherent at all. Obama's explanation of the McCain plan was far more understandable than McCain's attempt at explaining his own position. Probably convinced more than a few that they're better off without McCain's plan.

On the Supreme court issue - McCain came out and said he's for overturning Roe v. Wade. Called himself a Federalist - (stole that one from Palin!) He then got incoherent again.. no litmus test, but someone who's record supports Roe v. Wade would not be qualified .. huh? Talking out of both sides of his mouth. Obama refers back to supporting the Right to Privacy.. gets a strong uptick. Obama gives a strong empathy position - not 'Pro-Abortion'; support providing alternative solutions. Empathy was apparent; give women the choice, but encourage alternatives and prevent pregnancies to begin with. Very Centrist- and probably acceptable to some who lean pro-life, but are not hard line. Common ground approach mentioning sacred sexuality hits TOP marks, men and women! This line provides a way for people to support Obama from both sides of this issue and is reflected in the focus group response.

Obama hits again with Education. Teacher pay is very good point with the dialer twisters, but college hits the mark 100% + especially with women, but also with men. He does it again when he talks about better parenting -- 100% both men and women. Clear win on this one.
McCain harps on Vouchers.. his only answer. Troops returning to work as teachers without credentials gets a strong neg twist from women. Don't blame them... it's a STUPID idea. What qualifies a veteran to be able to teach without appropriate training? Makes NO sense. The visual of that ex-marine standing in front of a bunch of elementary school kids is pretty stark.
Obama comes out and blasts McCain's lack of help for college education, and uses his campaign's flippant response of not being able to accommodate a 'special interest'

Closing speeches were a mis-match. McCain starts, and gets only small responses. He doesn't have much to say. If anything, this should have been his shining moment. He should have been prepared to espouse all his strong points, but doesn't. He basically just asked for people to trust him. That's pretty tough with the sentiment running so negative these days, and some of his erratic answers. No big positives in response. Obama reviews his policy positions and relates them to the people. He gets a fairly strong positive response on the dials, and closes asking for peoples votes. (Don't forget to ask for their votes!!).

McCain set himself up as the angry attack underdog, but that set up a very negative tone. Response was muted. This is a very dangerous mode to go during a debate. If you are successful with the attacks, throwing your opponent off or getting them to change their game plan, and do it in a way that doesn't set a negative tone on your own message, you can win big. It's the kind of tactic that McCain needs because he needs to make a global shift in the campaign. Unfortunately for McCain, his tactic didn't work. He came across with a negative tone, did not throw Obama off his game plan, and didn't deliver a message of his own.

He ended up attacking Obama, but doing it on Obama's turf. That gives Obama control of the response and the debate. In order to work, he needed to attack Obama from his own turf. From his own strengths, he could have attacked without setting a negative tone on his own message.
The problem is that his own strengths aren't very strong. They don't bear critical analysis. They are also in areas that are not as important as they once were to the voters.

UPDATE - CNN snap poll data shows:
By 23 points, those polled said Obama was the stronger leader during the debate. By 48 points, they said Obama was more likeable. Independents went 57% to 31% for Obama as winning the debate. [Those are blow-away numbers. Clearly McCain's attack underdog persona hurt him]
CNN's Electoral College map now is at 277 Obama - more shifts, and some strong red states are now only 'lean McCain'. Interesting to see it change.

I expect a bounce for Obama in the battleground states out of this. I'm also waiting for the press to bring forward the William Timmons lobbyist issue, which mainstream news organizations haven't delivered on yet. Perhaps they were all waiting for the debates to be over. Obama doesn't need to raise this issue, but the press should still let people know about Timmons. He's an example of the worst of Washington insider politics.